Chart of the day: EURSEK (04.09.2025)

Sweden’s preliminary CPI reading for August showed headline inflation rising to 1.1% y/y (from 0.8% in July), the highest since February, while consumer prices fell by 0.4% m/m. The Riksbank’s preferred measure, CPIF, increased to 3.3% y/y (vs. 3.0% previously and above expectations of 3.2%), while CPIF excluding energy edged lower to 2.9% (from 3.2%). This mix points to persistent underlying price pressures, even though headline inflation remains clearly below the 2% target.

On the activity side, Sweden’s PMIs rebounded strongly in August, with the services index rising to 53.4 and the composite index to 53.9, after a broad-based decline in July. The improvement was driven by stronger employment and demand components, signaling that the slowdown seen earlier this summer may have been temporary. The PMI rebound strengthens the case against rapid policy easing.

Markets now expect the Riksbank to keep the policy rate at 2.0% on September 23, shifting pricing of cuts more toward November. Following today’s CPI data, EURSEK jumped 0.2% from 10.98 to 11.00, bouncing off key support, with SEK standing out today as one of the weakest G10 currencies.

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