Chart of the day - TNOTE (13.01.2025)

US bond yields have recently been recording record increases on the wave of investor concerns about the return of the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy in 2025. The two main factors supporting this scenario are the start of Donald Trump’s new term in January and the return of inflationary pressure. Essentially, the second factor is also somewhat related to Trump’s policy and fears of a strong turn by the US toward protectionism.

Yields on ten-year US bonds have remained in a strong upward trend basically since the announcement of the US presidential election results.

In recent months, we have experienced a rare event — an increase in ten-year bond yields accompanied by interest rate cuts. Investors have also lowered their expectations for rate cuts from two reductions just a week ago to barely one cut in the last quarter of 2025.

As a result, TNOTE prices were pushed to record-low levels and are now only 1.90% above the bottom of the interest rate hike cycle at the end of 2023. Currently, however, nothing indicates that the Fed is going to return to raising interest rates. In this regard, the most important factors will be inflation data and a sustained increase in price pressure — longer than two or three consecutive months. TNOTE quotes are losing another 0.15% today, dropping to 107.26 points. Source: xStation 5

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