Chart of the Day - US100 (30.05.2025)

Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3% in pre-market trading as a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated Trump's global tariffs, casting fresh uncertainty over markets despite this week's steady gains from improving US-EU trade talks and strong Nvidia earnings.

Tariff Ruling Pressures Tech

The US Court of Appeals granted Trump a temporary stay on Wednesday's trade court decision that had blocked major portions of his tariff agenda as illegal. With briefings due June 9 and the case likely heading to the Supreme Court, the ruling keeps tariffs in place while legal challenges continue. Tech stocks face heightened sensitivity given their global supply chains and international exposure.

PCE Data Awaited

Friday's focus turns to April's Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. While tariff impacts aren't expected in April data, any underlying price pressures could amplify concerns about trade levies' inflationary effects as the White House explores alternative tariff authorities.

TACO Trade Under Test

This week's rally exemplified the "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out) where markets bet on policy reversals. However, Trump's defiant response calling the original ruling "horrible" and "Country threatening" suggests the administration may fight harder this time, challenging the market's assumption of presidential retreat under pressure.

The legal battle over tariffs, combined with key inflation data and Elon Musk's announced government departure, creates a volatile backdrop for the Nasdaq 100 as investors weigh policy uncertainty against recent tech sector momentum.

US100 (D1)

The Nasdaq 100, represented by the US100, is trying to break above recent highs and remain above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level — a key zone that may act as resistance. Bulls will look to retest previous highs, while bears may aim for a pullback toward the 200- and 100-day SMAs, with the 61.8% retracement level as the next potential downside target. The RSI is starting to diverge higher, while MACD tightens after bearish crossover. Source: xStation