Chart of the Day: USD/JPY highly volatile ahead of US CPI

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The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around 153.50, with significant price fluctuations observed. The market remains highly sensitive to developments from both the US and Japan. The yen is losing its role as a safe-haven currency, and any comments from BoJ members or macroeconomic data releases can trigger sharp movements in the pair.

Source: xStation5

Key factors influencing USD/JPY

Bank of Japan policy and government actions

The Bank of Japan continues its process of interest rate normalization, but market reactions remain dynamic. Comments from an adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, suggesting there is no urgent need to appoint reflationists to upcoming BoJ board vacancies, initially weakened the yen and allowed USD/JPY to rise toward 153.30. However, later hawkish remarks from BoJ board member Tamura strengthened the yen, generating sharp fluctuations in the pair.

US macroeconomic data

Investors are still awaiting the release of US CPI, which could determine the short-term direction of USD/JPY. Stronger-than-expected CPI readings could support the dollar, while weaker data may limit the pair’s upside. Short-term price swings are currently very large, reflecting market uncertainty ahead of this key release.

Market sentiment and risk-off conditions

Investor caution remains high. Risk-off sentiment does not favor the yen in this instance, but the currency reacts sharply to any impulses from the US or Japan. Volatility in the pair remains elevated, and traders are avoiding long-term positions ahead of the CPI release.

Possible short-term scenarios

Strong CPI data could push USD/JPY above 154, continuing the short-term upward trend.
Weaker CPI readings in the US may trigger a rapid yen rebound and a drop below 153.00.
Currently, the pair may fluctuate dynamically in the 153.00–154.00 range, depending on market reactions to macro data and BoJ communications.

USD/JPY is in a phase of high volatility, with the yen reacting dynamically to political and macroeconomic developments. The pair is trading around 153.50, but its short-term direction will depend on the US CPI release and further signals from Japan.

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