Daily summary: Indices and crypto decline amid rising oil prices 🚩 Gold and the US dollar move higher

Friday brought declines on Wall Street and a more than 10% surge in oil prices, with crude rising above $93 for the first time since 2023. The conflict in the Middle East continues, with Iran carrying out attacks on U.S. bases today in Bahrain and Iraq. Donald Trump emphasized that the United States will continue the war until total victory, reinforcing market expectations that the operation could last at least several weeks. Unofficially, Marco Rubio reportedly stated that the operation may last around four weeks.

Amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty (including stagflation risks), gold is gaining more than 1.5%, rising above $5,160 per ounce despite the continued strength of the U.S. dollar and higher bond yields. Today’s NFP report from the U.S. labor market came in significantly below expectations, while U.S. retail sales for February slightly exceeded forecasts.

US, February NFP report:

Employment change: -92k (forecast: 55k; previous: 126k revised from 130k)
Unemployment rate: 4.4% (forecast: 4.3%; previous: 4.3%)
Average earnings growth: 3.8% YoY (forecast: 3.7%; previous: 3.7%)

US, January retail sales:

Headline: -0.2% MoM (forecast: -0.3%; previous: 0%)
Core: 0% MoM (forecast: +0.1%; previous: 0%)

The latest NFP release surprised all forecasts, marking the second decline in U.S. employment within the past five months. Weakness in the labor market was visible across nearly all sectors, with the largest correction seen in healthcare and education (-34k vs. +129k previously), which had been the strongest sectors in the previous report. Leisure and hospitality services recorded the second-largest decline (-27k).

Bitcoin is also trading lower today, with the price retreating from around $71,000 to $68,000. The drop has again weakened hopes for a broader rebound, with the latest rally stalling near the $74–75k range — a level considered important from a dealer positioning perspective. Ethereum is declining even more sharply; the second-largest cryptocurrency is down over 5% and has fallen below $2,000.

Eurozone GDP (seasonally adjusted, quarter-on-quarter) for Q4 2025 came in below expectations at 0.2% (forecast: 0.3%; previous: 0.3%).

Eurozone data:

Government spending (QoQ), Q4: 0.5% (forecast: 0.5%; previous: 0.7%)
Household consumption (QoQ): 0.4% (forecast: 0.4%; previous: 0.2%)
GDP SA (YoY), Q4: 1.2% (forecast: 1.3%; previous: 1.3%)
Employment (QoQ), Q4 final: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%)
Employment (YoY), Q4 final: 0.7% (previous: 0.6%)

In the U.S. equity market, Marvell Technology is gaining nearly 11%. The company raised its revenue forecast to $15.2 billion, up from the previous $14.2 billion. Expected sales growth this year is projected at 30% YoY, above estimates. However, sentiment outside the oil and gas sector remains very weak—especially in the financial sector, where BlackRock shares are down nearly 7%.

Boeing shares are up more than 2.5% after the Financial Times reported that the company is in talks with China regarding an order for 500 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft. The order could be part of broader economic relations between the United States and China and could potentially provide significant support to the company’s backlog.

According to France24, citing Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Iran stated that “the European Union would become a legitimate target if Europe joins the war in the Middle East.” For now, EU50 futures have shown a very limited reaction to these comments. Recently, France deployed an aircraft carrier to the Middle East.

Source: xStation5

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