Chart of the day - USDJPY (15.06.2023)

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USDJPY is on the move today with Japanese yen being the worst performing G10 currency while US dollar is one of the top performers. USDJPY is up almost 1% on the day. USD strengthening is driven by yesterday's FOMC meeting, which in spite of a pause in rate hikes, turned out to be very hawkish. This is because the new dot-plot showed a median rate expectation at 5.6% for end-2023, an increase from 5.1% in March dot-plot. This also means that FOMC members see two more 25 basis point rate hikes this year while market expectations prior to the meeting were for one more hike yesterday or at the July meeting before ending the cycle. Hawkish message sent by Fed led to a major repricing in market expectations with swap market no longer pricing in Fed rate cuts this year.

This hawkish turn from Fed is not only supporting USD but also putting pressure on JPY. This is because it signals that divergence between Fed and BoJ policies will continue to grow. Bank of Japan will announce its next monetary policy decision on Friday but no change to the level of rates or other monetary policy settings is expected.

Taking a look at the USDJPY chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair is trading in an upward channel. Pair broke above a local high from late-May 2023 and is now trading at the highest level since late-November 2022. USDJPY is approaching a mid-term resistance zone in the 142.00 area. Note that the upper limit of the channel can be found slightly above this resistance.

Source: xStation5

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