Chart of the Day: What’s next for the US stock market? (16.09.2026)

The US technology sector has run out of steam following months of buoyant growth. Although the Nasdaq 100 index still boasts a solid year-to-date return of 14.6%, recent weeks have brought a marked cooling in sentiment. Over the past month, the index has slipped by 3.7%, and it now stands 5.6% below its record highs. Investors are holding their breath as market tension mounts ahead of today's Federal Reserve decision.

Figure 1: Dashboard for Nasdaq 100 (15.09.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 16.09.2026

Return of the Hawks?

There are strong indications that the ongoing correction on Wall Street is not merely a technical pause, but rather the result of aggressive interest rate repricing. Money markets are currently pricing in a more than 90% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at today's meeting. Furthermore, market participants are convinced that another such move will follow before December. This would mark the first rate hike since 2023.

Figure 2: Change in Market-Implied Probability of September Fed Rate Hike (2025 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 16.09.2026

Behind this hawkish turn lie renewed inflation concerns, fuelled by rising energy commodity prices. Brent crude has approached USD 107-108 per barrel in recent days, while WTI has crossed the USD 104 mark.

Figure 3: Brent and WTI Crude Oil (2026)

Source: XTB Research, 16.09.2026

The impact of this anxiety is clearly visible in the debt market, where 10-year US Treasury yields have surged above 5%, testing levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis.

Figure 4: US 10-Year Government Bond Yields (08.2026 - 09.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 16.09.2026

Moment of Truth for the New Fed Chair

The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, faces a crucial credibility test.

The White House is exerting immense pressure on the central bank. Kevin Hassett, the President's chief economic advisor, explicitly stated that whilst Donald Trump "100 percent respects" the Fed Chair's independence, he certainly "would not be very happy" about a potential rate increase. For the markets, the situation is particularly intriguing given that Warsh openly aligned himself with Trump prior to taking office, criticizing former Chair Jerome Powell for cutting rates too slowly.

A pause in the current tense economic environment could be interpreted as a political surrender and a definitive loss of central bank independence. Of two evils, a rate increase appears to pose significantly less reputational risk for both the institution and Warsh himself.

However, the US dollar might not necessarily benefit from a potential rate hike. The move is already almost fully priced in, meaning attention will focus heavily on Warsh's commentary. The Fed Chair may struggle to live up to demanding market expectations, particularly in light of his preference for keeping communication to a minimum.

Figure 5: Major Currencies vs US Dollar (09.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 16.09.2026

AI Debate and Sector Valuations

Valuations of tech giants are being weighed down by more than just tightening monetary policy expectations. Within the artificial intelligence sector, which served as the primary growth engine for the Nasdaq 100, a fierce debate over safety has erupted.

It began with the dramatic resignation of Jacob Coxon from Anthropic, who warned that AI "could kill us all by the end of the decade". This triggered a flurry of extreme reactions from political and tech leaders:

• President Donald Trump described AI safety concerns as a "hoax" and a "sick conspiracy", adding that only China would benefit from slowing down progress. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang echoed this view, contending that the market will self-regulate and that new regulations are unnecessary.
• Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic) called for independent oversight, with his plea to monitor the pace of development backed by Sam Altman (OpenAI) and Elon Musk, among others.
• Mark Zuckerberg noted that Meta voluntarily delayed the deployment of its Muse model by several months to focus on safety, but voiced opposition to an industry-wide artificial slowdown.

Despite these apocalyptic discussions, capital continues to flood into the sector. OpenAI is currently holding early discussions regarding a new funding round that would value the company at an astronomical USD 1.2 trillion ahead of its public market debut.

Technical Analysis

Figure 6: US100 [D1] (04.03.2026 - 16.09.2026)

Source: XTB, 16.09.2026

The price has broken down and currently trades below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA 50, indicated by the yellow line on the chart). This moving average has now been pushed into a role of key resistance. Quotations are currently trapped between the 50-day EMA and the 100-day moving average (EMA 100, represented by the red line).

Applying a Fibonacci retracement to the powerful upward rally from March to early June shows that the price is fighting desperately to hold around the first major support level, the 23.6% retracement. A sustained break below this threshold (along with a breach of the EMA 100) could trigger a technical selling impulse, opening the door to a deeper correction.