Cocoa plunges 45% this year 🚩The sell-off accelerates

ICE cocoa futures (COCOA) are down more than 6% today as traders continue to hold off on purchases in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, despite Ghana’s sharp cut to the farmgate price paid to farmers. New York cocoa futures are falling for a seventh consecutive session. Since the start of the year, cocoa futures in both London and New York are down by roughly 45%. Prices are now at their lowest level since September 2023, having almost completely erased the speculative rally seen in 2024.

Ghana (the world’s second-largest producer) cut farmgate prices by nearly 30% last week. Côte d’Ivoire (the largest producer) has stated it will not adjust its farmgate price before the current main crop season ends on March 31, although reports suggest it is considering a reduction.
Downside pressure persists because buyers are reluctant to pay official prices for beans in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire; Ghana’s price cut, combined with weakening demand, is likely to force Côte d’Ivoire to follow with an adjustment as well.
Market outlook: prices may remain under pressure as softer demand and an improving crop outlook in West Africa raise expectations of a supply-demand surplus extending through 2027.
That said, structural production risks may limit the scope for a deeper selloff. Any demand rebound triggered by lower prices could also shift sentiment quickly, keeping volatility elevated.

Technically, the daily RSI for cocoa has dropped to around 20, pointing to extreme oversold conditions—highly unusual for the cocoa market. However, the broader trend remains bearish, with sellers firmly in control.

Source: xStation5

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
__cfruid
_cfuvid

Cookie name	Description
_gid	Expiration date 1 day
_gat_UA-98728395-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gat_UA-121192761-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
af_id	Expiration date 394 days
afUserId	Expiration date 730 days
AF_SYNC	Expiration date 6 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days

Cookie name	Description
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
fr	Expiration date 89 days
_ttp	Expiration date 89 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 89 days
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	Expiration date 179 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA	Expiration date 179 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days

Cookie name	Description
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days