Coffee prices dropped to $206.25, a level not seen since May 11th, amid a weaker real and lingering worries to what extent recession will hit demand. In turn, fresh data showed that farmers in Brazil harvested 48% of this year's coffee by 5 July, although lagging behind the previous season and the historical average for this period. The International Coffee Organization last week reported that global coffee exports for October-May period increased +1.3% YoY to 88.506 mln bags, while the Colombia Coffee Growers Federation reported that Colombia's June coffee exports jumped 6% YoY to 939,000 bags. Also concerns about droughts in Brazil, which is a major coffee producer, may limit the downside move in the near future.
COFFEE price recently broke below major support at 220.00, which coincides with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave launched back in 2019. If current sentiment prevails, downward correction may deepen towards key support at 195.30, which is marked with lower limit of the 1:1 structure and 38.2% retracement. Source: xStation5