Bitcoin is trading above $63,000 and is gaining less than 1%, trying to break above the upper limit of the medium-term uptrend channel, which would potentially imply a reversal of the downtrend. Sentiment among the other cryptocurrencies remains mixed, with 'altcoins' remaining in the shadow of BTC. The best performers on a daily basis today are Graph, Filecoin and Uniswap.
The cryptocurrency market is likely to face heightened volatility this week, as the market will closely await inflation data from the US, Thursday (2:30 pm). Investors have recently leaned again towards the dollar, supported by strong macro data and oil. However, Bitcoin has hardly reacted to this and is currently trading 'only' about 5% below the upper limit of the downward channel, which runs around $65,500.
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BTC traded above the key medium-term exponential EMA averages is attempting to rebound, after the cryptocurrency repeatedly defended levels near $50,000 and managed to break above $60,000 again, in recent days. A potentially unsuccessful rally above $66k (the upper limit of the price channel) could result in another downward impulse, which could lead to a test of $60k. Otherwise, the medium-term target for the bulls should be levels above USD 70 thousand. Resistance at $66k seems all the more important, since a sizable portion of short-term BTC investors purchased BTC precisely in this area.
Source: xStation5
Stronger inflows into ETFs failed to maintain the upward streak from the end of September, and we are again observing a few days of net outflows. Their scale, however, is relatively small, with Friday's latest session yielding a positive $25 million; IBIT (BlackRock) started 'buying' again last week.
Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Patterns from previous cycles indicate that the continuation of Bitcoin's bull market is still 'on the table' and several months of weaker sentiment will not necessarily determine its further fate.
Source: Glassnode Insights
Long-term BTC holders are currently seeing a roughly 6% loss and have recently been divesting their BTC reserves.
Source: Glassnode Insights
The issue of unrealized losses of the LTH investor group, raised by many, does not seem to be a problem this time; historically, their current scale is very low, while the average loss of short-term investors holding BTC for less than 5 months is currently close to the historical average (about 38% of this supply is in loss).
Source: Glassnode Insights
