Daily Summary: a rate hike still on the table?

6:47 PM 2 June 2023

• Expectations for an interest rate hike by the Fed, primarily in July, have been growing, with the pricing reaching 25 basis points, driven by strong data from the US labor market.

• The NFP report showed a job growth of 339k, surpassing the expected 190k. However, the household survey-based unemployment report revealed an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.4% to 3.7%, which suggests the potential for keeping interest rates unchanged in June.

Start investing today or test a free demo

Open real account TRY DEMO Download mobile app Download mobile app

• Wages are growing at a rate of 4.3% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in wage pressure. The Thursday ISM report for the manufacturing industry showed a significant decrease in prices paid, suggesting a potential sharp decline in inflation for May.

• In response to the strong US data, we witnessed an increase in bond yields, a strengthening of the dollar, and a decline in gold prices. EURUSD is trading near 1.0700, although it previously tested levels around 1.0800.

• Gold dropped from around $1970 to $1950 per ounce.

• Bond yields rose sharply after Fitch indicated its negative outlook for US debt. Earlier, the Senate passed a bill to suspend the debt limit until 2025.

• Crude oil rebounded by 2% today, continuing its recovery, possibly related to expectations regarding the OPEC+ decision on production limits. However, it is expected that OPEC+ will not reduce the limit, although surprises similar to April cannot be ruled out.

• Additionally, oil is supported by news from China about a likely introduction of another stimulus package for the real estate market. Following this news, we saw a strong rebound in copper prices, but it was later neutralized due to the strengthening of the dollar.

• Despite the possibility of interest rate hikes, Wall Street continues its recovery. US100 is up 0.7%, US500 up 1.5%, and US30 up 2.0%.


EURUSD, H1 interval, source xStation 5

Xtb logo

Join over 1 000 000 XTB Group Clients from around the world

The financial instruments we offer, especially CFDs, can be highly risky. Fractional Shares (FS) is an acquired from XTB fiduciary right to fractional parts of stocks and ETFs. FS are not a separate financial instrument. The limited corporate rights are associated with FS.
This page was not created for investors residing in Brazil. This brokerage is not authorized by the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) or the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). The content of this page should not be characterized as an investment offer in Brazil or for investors residing in that country.
Losses can exceed deposits

We use cookies

By clicking “Accept All”, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts.

This group contains cookies that are necessary for our websites to work. They take part in functionalities like language preferences, traffic distribution or keeping user session. They cannot be disabled.

Cookie name
userBranchSymbol cc 2 March 2024
test_cookie cc 25 January 2024
adobe_unique_id cc 1 March 2025
__hssc cc 8 September 2022
SESSID cc 2 March 2024
__cf_bm cc 8 September 2022
intercom-id-iojaybix cc 26 November 2024
intercom-session-iojaybix cc 8 March 2024

We use tools that let us analyze the usage of our page. Such data lets us improve the user experience of our web service.

Cookie name
_gid cc 9 September 2022
_gat_UA-98728395-1 cc 8 September 2022
_gat_UA-121192761-1 cc 8 September 2022
_gcl_au cc 30 May 2024
_ga_CBPL72L2EC cc 1 March 2026
_ga cc 1 March 2026
__hstc cc 7 March 2023

This group of cookies is used to show you ads of topics that you are interested in. It also lets us monitor our marketing activities, it helps to measure the performance of our ads.

Cookie name
MUID cc 26 March 2025
_omappvp cc 11 February 2035
_omappvs cc 1 March 2024
_uetsid cc 2 March 2024
_uetvid cc 26 March 2025
_fbp cc 30 May 2024
fr cc 7 December 2022
_ttp cc 26 March 2025
_tt_enable_cookie cc 26 March 2025
_ttp cc 26 March 2025
hubspotutk cc 7 March 2023

Cookies from this group store your preferences you gave while using the site, so that they will already be here when you visit the page after some time.

Cookie name

This page uses cookies. Cookies are files stored in your browser and are used by most websites to help personalise your web experience. For more information see our Privacy Policy You can manage cookies by clicking "Settings". If you agree to our use of cookies, click "Accept all".

Change region and language
Country of residence