Daily Summary: Dollar at 1-year high, stocks rebound on renewed risk appetite 🚀 (18.06.2026)

🇺🇸 US Equities

• US stock indices rally on relief and risk appetite: Wall Street jumped as post-FOMC pressure evaporated and risk appetite surged following the historic signing of the US-Iran peace deal. Nasdaq futures led the broad-based gains (US100: +2.0% after rollover), followed closely by the small-cap Russell 2000 (US2000: +1.3% after rollover), the S&P 500 (US500: +0.9% after rollover), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30: +0.2% after rollover).

🇪🇺 European Equities

• European indices rebound despite regional divergence: European equity markets logged a solid recovery session, though clear splits emerged between core and peripheral indices. The broad Euro Stoxx 50 led the charging green block (EU50: +1.4%), closely mirrored by France's CAC40 (FRA40: +1.4%), Italy's FTSE MIB (ITA40: +1.1%), Germany's DAX (DE40: +1.0%), and the Dutch AEX (NED25: +0.9%). Meanwhile, Spanish IBEX 35 futures (SPA35) traded flat, while the UK's FTSE 100 (UK100: -0.3%) and Poland's WIG20 (W20: -1.5%) significantly lagged behind their continental peers.

🏢 Corporate News

• Amazon eyes merchant AI chip market to challenge Nvidia: Amazon is reportedly in talks to sell its custom Trainium chips directly to external data centers. This strategic shift would transition AWS from a closed, internal-use cloud infrastructure provider into a direct merchant market competitor, threatening Nvidia's monopoly and driving hardware market fragmentation.

• Apple flags price hikes over surging chip costs: Outgoing CEO Tim Cook warned that hardware price increases are inevitable due to an unsustainable spike in memory costs. Driven by heavy AI demand and Middle East war disruptions to helium supply chains, global smartphone prices could jump 20%, potentially adding up to $150 to the upcoming iPhone 18.

• Accenture sparks global IT consulting rout on guidance cut: Accenture plunged 16.7% after reporting a Q3 revenue miss and trimming its full-year growth forecast to 3%–4%. The downbeat guidance triggered widespread industry selling over growing fears that rapid generative AI adoption is displacing traditional tech consulting budgets.

• BMW slashes outlook to 5-year low on China collapse and war costs: BMW shares plunged to late-2020 lows after slashing its 2026 automotive EBIT margin from 4%–6% to just 1%–3%. Under newly appointed CEO Milan Nedeljković, the carmaker blamed a severe sales downturn in China and surging operational energy costs linked to the war in Iran. The shock warning dragged down German peers Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen, as management flagged accelerated restructuring costs that will hit H2 2026 profits.

🌍 Economics & Central Banks

• U.S. jobless claims fall to 226k amid low layoffs: Initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000, coming in line with expectations and confirming a stable labor market backdrop. While initial layoffs remain historically low, continuing claims edged up to 1.81 million, indicating slightly slower re-employment for displaced workers.

• Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75% via hawkish split: The BoE kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% following a hawkish 7–2 vote split. The minority dissenters pushed for a hike, with the MPC underlining persistent, elevated inflationary pressures and potential wage effects despite the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

• Swiss National Bank holds policy rate at 0% with FX warning: The SNB maintained its quarterly interest rate at 0.0%, marking a full year of unchanged policy. Chairman Martin Schlegel expressed heightened readiness to actively intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb rapid, excessive Swiss franc appreciation.

• Norges Bank holds at 4.25% and signals future tightening: Norway's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% but delivered a hawkish pause, firming up explicit guidance that another rate hike will likely be needed at an upcoming meeting to cool sticky inflation.

💱 FX, Energy & Precious Metals

• FX — Dollar index surges to multi-month highs: The U.S. dollar index surged (USDIDX: +0.4%) to its highest level since May 2025, buoyed by yesterday's hawkish Fed dot plot and Donald Trump's comments on potential rate hikes. Scandinavian currencies (USDSEK: +0.9%, USDNOK: +1.4%) and the Swiss franc (USDCHF: +0.8%) were the weakest G10 performers. Elsewhere, USDJPY extended its uncomfortably high run above 160.00 (+0.6%), the pound slid on the BoE hold (GBPUSD: -0.5%), and EURUSD dropped 0.3% to 1.1465.

• Energy — NATGAS spikes on EIA data while crude steadies: Crude oil slightly extended its recent losses, with Brent futures (OIL) dropping 0.6% to $78.30 per barrel as geopolitical risk premiums eased after the peace deal. Conversely, natural gas (NATGAS) futures skyrocketed 2.9% following a highly bullish EIA storage report that showed a lower-than-expected weekly inventory injection of 73 Bcf (vs. 76 Bcf forecast), pulling total storage below last year's levels.

• Precious Metals — Dominant greenback hammers gold and silver: Precious metals traded deeply in the red, facing severe headwinds from rising real yields and a powerful US dollar. Gold futures (GOLD) fell 0.6% to $4,230/oz, while silver ones (SILVER) plummeted 2.7% to $66.10/oz.