Morning Wrap: Oil Brent surpasses 91 USD (18.08.2026)

📈 Stock Markets and Equities

• American giant Nvidia has pledged up to $105 billion to build an 8 GW data center campus in Ohio for lease to OpenAI, while Microsoft and Salesforce are eyeing the acquisition of the Darwinbox platform ahead of its stock market debut.
• The annual recurring revenue (ARR) of Anthropic exceeded $65 billion at the end of July, representing more than a sevenfold increase since the end of last year, building optimism ahead of its planned IPO.
• Asian indices recorded significant declines: Japan's Nikkei 225 lost over 1.6% (with heavy sell-offs in Kioxia and Murata), South Korea's KOSPI fell by 1.1%, and Chinese tech companies, including JD.com and Meituan, also faced sell-offs.
• Wall Street ended the session under selling pressure: the S&P 500 fell to 7742 pts (-0.3%), the Nasdaq 100 to 29,898 pts (-0.6%), and Microsoft shares lost over 3% to $480.
• The European CAC 40 index recorded a 0.79% decline due to growing short positions on French government bonds (OAT) triggered by a political dispute over the 2027 budget.

🏛️ Macroeconomics

• Global bond markets are experiencing a strong sell-off: the yield on US 30-year bonds reached 5.3% (the highest since 2007), and Japanese 10-year yields rose to ~2.95% (levels not seen in three decades).
• Globally, we are observing a clear decline in the amount of US Treasury bonds held. In June, there was a drop to $9.299 trillion, driven by portfolio reductions by investors from Japan, the UK, and China, which ING analysts say could prolong the bond sell-off, leading to higher yields and potentially impacting gold, among others.
• Goldman Sachs considers a possible Fed rate hike highly unlikely due to soft inflation data, but markets fear cost pressure from commodities ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.
• Chinese authorities presented a plan to stimulate consumption at the county level, while the PBoC is considering an LPR rate cut and shifting the main liquidity tool toward overnight reverse repo operations.

🛢️ Commodities

• Prices for Brent crude are accelerating, rising above $91 per barrel, while WTI remains above $84 following an attack on a merchant ship in the Strait of Hormuz and the expiration of a 60-day US-Iran memorandum, which was essentially already defunct. However, it does not seem likely that the United States will decide on a stronger strike at this point.
• Although official negotiations are not being held, talks are occurring through proxies. Rumors emerged that Iran was to control ships entering the Strait of Hormuz, and Oman those exiting, with US participation. Such a proposal was reportedly rejected by Iran.
• The US diesel crack spread reached a record $102.20 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and peak demand in agriculture and shipping.
• Gold retreated to around $4392 per ounce facing strong technical resistance at $4500, even though demand from central banks reached nearly 300 tons in Q2, and Wells Fargo maintains a target of $4900–$5100 for 2026.
• Copper is struggling with a supply crisis and a jump in spreads on the LME, and BHP announced that the metal has overtaken iron ore as the company's main profit driver.
• Agricultural commodity markets are seeing strong gains: cocoa rose by 5.09% (+9.94% weekly), and orange juice gained 3.18%.

💱 Currencies

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) conducted a currency intervention, selling dollars to ease pressure on the rupee (USDINR near highs) triggered by capital outflows and high oil prices.
• The USDJPY rate is oscillating around 159.7, staying near two-week yen lows as the effect of previous joint US-Japan interventions fades.
• The New Zealand dollar (NZDUSD) fell below 0.5900 after disappointing Chinese data regarding retail sales and industrial production for July.
• Institutional analyses point to potential medium-term weakness of the US dollar in favor of the EUR and GBP (Westpac) and the attractiveness of EURAUD carry trade positions with a target of 1.53 (Morgan Stanley).

₿ Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin is consolidating above the $64,000 level, with Fundstrat forecasting a volatility jump of at least 30% over the next two months.
• The altcoin sector is seeing a sell-off, led by Gala (-15.53%) and Filecoin (-7.76%).

🌍 Geopolitics

• An explosion on a merchant ship in the Strait of Hormuz (damaged engine room, one fatality among the crew) coincided with the expiration of the US-Iran truce and threats from Washington, significantly raising the risk of conflict escalation.
• Over 180 drones were shot down over the Moscow region in a massive attack that hit, among others, the logistics center of the Wildberries company.

🔭 Suggested Markets for Observation

• WTI Crude — direct exposure to geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz and testing two-week highs above $84.
• Copper — extremely high z-score (+3.23) and tightening of spreads on the LME combined with the shift in the profit structure of BHP.
• Gala — sharp price drop pushing the z-score deep below the norm (-1.45), creating risk of capitulation or a chance for a short squeeze.
• Nikkei 225 — index drop (-1.62%) with a very high z-score (+3.49) and rising to multi-year highs in Japanese government bond yields.