Daily summary: Dollar Dips, while US Indices Reach New All-Time-Highs (30.06.2025)

American indices close Q2 2025 at new record highs amid a more dovish Federal Reserve narrative and expected trade agreements between the US and partners. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 are up about 0.2% today, while the DJIA is trading approximately 0.35% higher.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for Texas stood at -12.7 in June (forecast: -12, previous: -15.3). The decline in sector activity is due to lower demand for industrial goods, weaker employment dynamics, higher credit costs, and ongoing tariff uncertainty.

According to the President of the Atlanta Fed (Raphael Bostic), inflation in the US will return to the 2% target without the need to raise interest rates. Bostic supported one rate cut in 2025 and three in 2026. In the banker’s view, the labor market remains stable, and the inflation shock from tariffs will be most visible in 2026.

European indices generally recorded slight corrections after strong gains last week (DAX: -0.5%, CAC40: -0.3%, FTSE 100: -0.4%, SMI: -0.5%). Exceptions in the West were the Milan stock exchange (FTSE MIB: +0.13%) and Madrid (IBEX35: +0.17%).

The preliminary CPI inflation reading in Germany for June indicates stabilization around the ECB’s inflation target. Year-on-year inflation rose by 2% (vs. forecast: 2.2%). Meanwhile, today's retail sales data came in significantly weaker than expected: growth of 1.6% vs. expectations of 3.3%.

UK GDP in Q1 grew by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, which is in line with market expectations and indicates an acceleration compared to the previous quarter, which grew by 0.1% QoQ.

On the forex market: the dollar continues its historic decline, dropping to the lowest level since February 2022 (USDIDX: -0.45%). Falling confidence in the USD and dovish Fed comments support safe-haven currencies such as the franc (USDCHF: -0.7%) and yen (USDJPY: -0.25%), while the prospect of trade agreements benefits antipodean currencies (AUDUSD: +0.6%, NZDUSD: +0.5%). EURUSD breaks another psychological barrier, climbing above 1.1750 (+0.4% to 1.1766).

Gold gains on the back of a weak dollar (+0.6% to $3,295 per ounce), while silver trades flat.

Sentiment in the crypto market remains mixed. Larger cryptocurrencies gain primarily (Bitcoin: +0.2% to $107,735; Ethereum: +2.5% to $2,495; Solana: +3.8%; Ripple: +1.6%), while smaller tokens trade mostly in the red.