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Daily summary: FED hike still in play after NFP data

3:02 PM 7 April 2023

  • Non-farm payrolls was released today at 1:30 pm BST. The newest reading: 236k rise in employment compared to 240k expected and 311k in the previous month.

  • The only 'real' surprise came from the unemployment rate which dropped from 3.6 to 3.5% (exp. 3.6%). Earnings growth was slightly weaker.

  • The latest NFP data showed that a 25 bp rate hike in May is still in play, CPI data next week will be crucial along with FOMC minutes. Currently investors estimate 70% chances of a 25 bp rise on the next FED meeting.

  • The dollar appreciated after the NFP data. In addition to a stronger dollar, we saw the NZD appreciation today and depreciation of CAD and JPY.

  • The market volatility was relatively low. The majority of financial markets did not trade due to the Easter holiday. Major cryptocurrencies traded mixed today with rather small price changes apart from Dogecoin which bounced back by -4% after speculative rise.

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