Daily summary: Good data from China, markets fall through Triple Witching' Day

6:54 PM September 15, 2023

1) Today we learned a very good macro data from the Chinese economy. Industrial production increased by 4.5% y/y (expected: 3.9% y/y; previous: 3.7% y/y). Retail sales increased by 4.6% y/y against expectations of 3.0% y/y and the previous figure of 2.5% y/y. These data show that the Chinese government's measures to stimulate economic activity are finally having an effect.

2) As a result, we saw a strong recovery in Asian stock markets and industrial metals. 

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3) However, the third Friday of the last month of the quarter is the Triple Witching' Day, when high volatility occurs. Ultimately, we see declines of over 1% on key Chinese index futures.

4) Due to the settlement of futures and options, very strong declines were seen on Wall Street. The US500 lost close to 1%  and the US100 even lost 1.5%.

5)The Triple Witching' Day and good data from China are not only affecting industrial metals, but also gold. Bullion is rebounding today from the 1910 area and momentarily breaks above  $1925 per ounce. Silver maintains gains of 2% today. 

6) EURUSD is rebounding today, after yesterday's massive declines. We had a lot of statements from ECB bankers today, who sounded more hawkish than Lagarde yesterday. The bankers indicate that it is still too early to talk about cuts, and the market is pricing in a too early.

7) Industrial production from the US comes in much better than expected. It rose by 0.4% m/m for August, against an expectation of 0.1% m/m and the previous 0.7% m/m

8) On the other hand, consumer sentiment according to the UoM is performing poorly. For September, they fall to 67.7 points against expectations of 69.2 points and the previous level of 69.5 points

9) Inflation expectations are falling: 1-year to 2.7%, while 5-10-year to 3.1%


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