USA
- Market sentiment toward the end of Wednesday’s session is clearly mixed, but with optimism having the upper hand. Despite troubling macroeconomic data, uncertainty over the outcome of President Trump’s visit to China, and the future path of the oil market, investors remain in relatively good spirits. The strong uptrend in the technology sector continues. The Nasdaq 100 is leading U.S. indices higher, with its futures up more than 1%. The S&P 500 has pared gains to around 0.5%, while the Russell and the Dow are slightly lower.
- Hopes, fears, and speculation surround the U.S. delegation and Donald Trump in China. The president traveled to China amid significant geopolitical tensions and very high market expectations for results - especially in the technology sector, which is critical to negotiations. Despite an impressive U.S. lineup, early reports from industry media indicate that the conference on the Chinese side is much smaller in scale than expected.
- Morgan Stanley is signaling optimism about the market by raising its year-end target for the S&P 500.
- Alibaba, despite weak results in terms of profitability and revenue, is making up for it with better guidance and growth in key cloud and AI-related segments. The company’s shares are up more than 7%.
- Ford clearly surprised investors with unexpectedly high profitability during its earnings call, beating EPS expectations by more than 200%. The stock is up more than 12%.
- U.S. macroeconomic data are sending strong warning signals regarding inflation and fuel markets.
- Producer inflation (PPI) came in well above expectations, reaching 5.2% in core terms and 6.0% headline, versus forecasts of 4.3% and 4.9%, respectively.
- At the same time, crude oil inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels versus expectations of 2.0 million. Gasoline inventories also declined by nearly twice the consensus: down 4.08 million barrels versus the expected 2.8 million.
- Moderately positive sentiment across European equities is strengthening as U.S. investors flow into the market. Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up 0.7%. The top performer in Europe is Poland’s WIG20, up more than 2%.
- Siemens slightly missed investor expectations, coming in just below the EPS and revenue consensus. The stock is down just under 1%.
- Eurozone macro data came in in line with expectations. Annualized GDP growth for Q1 2026 was 0.8%, marking a slowdown from 1.2% in the previous quarter.
- Employment rose 0.5% year over year, while industrial production fell 2.1% year over year.
- French consumer inflation came in at the expected 1%.
- In agricultural commodities, cocoa is down nearly 3%, which may point to profit-taking and consolidation after the recent rally. Sugar is up more than 2% amid mounting expectations for increased ethanol production to blend into fuel in an environment of global shortages.
- Oil is slightly lower, holding around USD 106 per barrel.
- Aluminum is up more than 2%, driven by disrupted supply chains from the Middle East and stronger demand.
- Silver is up 2%, trading around USD 88.
- Cryptocurrency markets are seeing very poor sentiment, with sharp declines across almost the entire market. Bitcoin is down 1.5% and has fallen below USD 80,000. Ethereum is down just over 1.2%, slipping toward USD 2,250. Solana is down more than 4%, holding around USD 90.
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