Daily summary: Indices at ATH, dollar weakens 💲

U.S. stock indices are gaining to record highs. The US500 is up 0.80% to 6,590 points, the US100 is up 0.70% and surpasses the 24,000-point level, while the small-cap index — US2000 — is up 1.70% to 2,417 points.

The US30 climbed to an all-time high above 46,000 points, driven by gains in Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth Group, and Caterpillar.

Oracle shares are down more than 5% after yesterday’s rally fueled by the OpenAI deal. On the other hand, Micron is up 10% today after Citi raised its price target from $150 to $175.

After today’s series of U.S. macro reports, the dollar is the weakest G10 currency. The USDIDX dollar index is down 0.28%, while EURUSD is up 0.30%. Among the strongest gainers is the Australian dollar.

Since the CPI report did not bring any major surprise, the key report today turned out to be jobless claims.

New jobless claims: 263k vs. 235k expected and 237k prior — the highest reading since October 2021.

It is the slowing labor market that is now in the spotlight for investors. And it is precisely this data that supports a series of Fed rate cuts starting in September. The market now expects three 25bp cuts at the September, October, and December meetings.

As expected, CPI inflation for August rose to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% y/y. Core inflation remained elevated at 3.1% y/y. The only surprise was slightly higher monthly CPI, which rose 0.4% m/m versus expectations of 0.3% m/m.

Markets welcomed the European Central Bank’s decision, which, in line with expectations, left interest rates unchanged. The deposit rate remains at 2%. While the decision itself was not a surprise, comments from President Christine Lagarde drew market attention.

During the press conference, Lagarde stressed that the disinflation process in the eurozone has stalled, and inflation remains above the ECB’s target. As a result, the bank does not rule out further rate hikes if the inflation situation requires it.

Investors assume that eurozone rates will remain at current levels for an extended period.

The inflation outlook for the EU has not changed significantly, although for 2025 and 2026 the forecast was raised by 0.1%. Core CPI is expected at 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027.

At the same time, GDP growth expectations increased for 2025 (1.2% vs. 0.9%) and 2026 (1% vs. 1.1%), while the forecast for 2027 remained unchanged (1.3%).

The change in U.S. natural gas inventories according to the EIA came in at 71 bcf vs. 68 bcf expected and 55 bcf previously.

The price of Bitcoin rose above $114k, while Ethereum gained more than 1.5%. Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is supported by a weaker dollar and optimism in equities.