Daily Summary: New Records on Wall Street. Markets Await the New Earnings Season

📈 Stock Market

• Wall Street is having a great session, driven by new all-time highs reached by U.S. indices: S&P 500 rises by nearly 0.7% to set an all-time high (last seen in mid-August this year), Nasdaq gains about 0.6%, while Dow Jones grows by 0.5%.

• Additional catalysts for today's gains in the U.S. come from the semiconductor sector: Broadcom and Marvell gain around 4%, AMD advances by about 3.5%, and Nvidia gains roughly 0.5%, setting its own new records.

• Positive sentiment was also evident across the Old Continent: the British FTSE 100 rose by 0.4%, as did the French CAC 40, while the German DAX index rose by 0.8%, matching the gain of the Spanish IBEX 35.

🌐 Macroeconomics

• The main fuel for recent gains无疑 came from relatively weak NFP data and a positively surprising, lower PCE inflation reading.

• The market interprets the macroeconomic data in a way that the probability of a Fed rate hike at the upcoming meeting falls drastically – currently pricing in roughly an 80% chance of keeping interest rates unchanged.

• The U.S. trade deficit in August reached $105.6 billion, well above market expectations (approx. $102 billion), signaling once again that foreign trade could weigh heavily on U.S. Q3 GDP growth.

🛢️ Commodities and Energy

• Persian Gulf oil exports in September virtually returned to pre-war levels, though this does not mean a return to normalcy: about 40% of crude now bypasses the Strait of Hormuz via Saudi Arabian and UAE pipelines, with some cargoes being transshipped at sea, increasing costs and disruption risks.

• Refined fuel exports remain well below pre-war levels, maintaining pressure on the global diesel and jet fuel markets.

• Iran-backed Houthis deny losing control over the Red Sea coast and claim to maintain their captured positions, while reporting attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia (according to Saudi authorities, only a few people were injured).

• Despite intense fighting, Brent crude dropped below $100 per barrel, indicating that the market is not currently pricing in the conflict as a direct threat to global oil supplies.

• Qatar reported that talks between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing – both sides are exchanging messages via Qatar, showing that the diplomatic channel remains open despite ongoing military operations.

• Positive sentiment is also visible in the precious metals market: gold gains about 0.7% to test $4,200 per ounce, while silver rises around 0.5%, trading at roughly $61–62 per ounce.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

• Mixed sentiment is observed in the crypto-asset market: Bitcoin gains about 0.2%, trading at around $85,500, while Ethereum remains under pressure, pulling back by roughly 0.4% below $2,700.