Daily Summary: Oracle drives the market higher, dollar weakens following Fed meeting (28.10.2026)

Investors eagerly awaited today's Federal Reserve meeting. However, it brought few major surprises—not least regarding the interest rate decision itself, with rates maintained within the 3.75-4% range. Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of today's decision was the vote split (10–2), specifically the dissent of Lisa Cook, who was "dismissed" by Donald Trump last year (in June this year, the Supreme Court ruled that she may retain her seat).

Monetary Policy

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided explicit declarations regarding a December rate hike. He noted, however, that "there is broad consensus that monetary medicine is taking effect," which markets appeared to interpret dovishly. He also mentioned that the majority of FOMC members "do not believe the economy is overheating."

Additionally, he announced that starting next year, the Fed will reduce the number of policy meetings to seven—one annual meeting will be dedicated exclusively to broader strategic discussion, without a vote. In 2028, as many as two non-policy meetings are scheduled to take place.

Today's decision does not settle the debate surrounding the December meeting—the market still leans towards a rate increase, albeit with slightly less conviction than before noon (pricing in an 85% probability, down from 95%). A modest decline in market pricing was also observed regarding policy moves in subsequent months. Three additional rate hikes remain the base scenario, though they are no longer fully priced in.

The US dollar is weakening both against the trade-weighted basket of currencies (-0.2%) and against the euro (-0.3%). Yields on 2-year US Treasury notes also fell by a few basis points (to around 4.72%). Nevertheless, EURUSD remains significantly below last week's closing level.

Figure 1: Major Currencies vs US Dollar (26.10.2026 - 28.10.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 28.10.2026

Equity Market

The S&P 500 gained approximately 0.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose by nearly 0.5%. Investors await quarterly earnings reports from Alphabet and Microsoft (which may already be available at the time of publication).

Figure 2: Nasdaq 100 Gainers and Losers (28.10.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 28.10.2026

The biggest gainer of the day was Oracle, whose shares surged by 11%. The company provided investors with a compelling argument for the continuation of the bull market in artificial intelligence. During its investor day, the firm projected exceeding $225 billion in annual revenue in fiscal year 2030 and achieving positive free cash flow in the second half of fiscal year 2028.

Figure 3: Dashboard for Oracle (2021 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 28.10.2026

SK Hynix also performed strongly, advancing 13%. Nvidia's primary memory supplier reported a more than sevenfold increase in profits, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure memory, and announced plans to return approximately $75 billion to shareholders this year.

Precious Metals

Gold gained following the meeting, climbing to $4,070 per troy ounce. Precious metals benefited in part from a modest weakening of the US dollar and a slight decline in 2-year Treasury yields (while yields at the further end of the curve rose).

Figure 4: Gold (2026)

Source: XTB Research, 28.10.2026

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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB