Daily summary: Peace agreement draft lifts the market

USA

• US indices end the day with moderate gains, capped below 1%. The biggest advances are seen in US2000 futures, up about 0.9%.
• Negotiations between the US and Iran have picked up in the final hours of the session. Iranian media claim a peace deal is close to being finalized thanks to Pakistan’s involvement. The new agreement is expected to include clauses on halting hostilities on all fronts, refraining from attacks on infrastructure, and reopening the strait under joint supervision (Iran and the US).
• SpaceX has released its long-awaited IPO prospectus outline. Markets and analysts are still assessing the implications and the quality of the disclosed data.
• Nvidia posted another set of record results, but the valuation reaction remained muted, with the stock down more than 1%.
• Walmart is down as much as 7% despite solid results, amid concerns about cost pressure in upcoming quarters.
• The Department of Commerce announced subsidies worth $2 billion for companies and start-ups involved in quantum computing. IBM is up nearly 8%, while quantum-computing stocks are rising by double-digit percentages.
• Macroeconomic data
  • Building permits came in above expectations, reaching 1.44 million.
  • Jobless claims were close to forecasts: 209k versus an expected 210k.
  • The PMI readings for manufacturing and services highlighted strength in the former, which rose to 55.3. Services, however, fell to 50.9.

Europe

• European indices ended the session near flat. Futures, however, pointed to improved sentiment following news of a potential peace deal. The leaders are NED25 and SUI20 futures, both up close to 1%.
• Macroeconomic data
  • Eurozone PMI data came in below expectations for both manufacturing and services, falling to 51.4 and 46.4, respectively.
  • The UK reading was slightly better, with manufacturing PMI rising to 53.7. UK services PMI also disappointed, dropping sharply from 52.7 to 47.9.

Forex

• The New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar are weaker following significant negative surprises in Australian macroeconomic data. Both currencies are down about 0.2–0.3% against the major pairs.

Commodities

• Among agricultural commodities, cotton and coffee prices are falling—down 4% and more than 2%, respectively. This follows exceptionally strong US cotton exports. Coffee remains under pressure due to expectations of large harvests in Brazil.
• Energy commodities have erased today’s gains and are ending the session about 2% lower. Brent crude is back below $100.

Crypto

• Peace prospects are supporting the crypto market. Gains are visible across most of the market: Bitcoin is up 0.5%, Ethereum is up about 0.7%, and Solana is strengthening by nearly 2%.