Daily Summary: S&P 500 at a New ATH (13.08.2026)

The main indices on Wall Street are recording gains today. The Nasdaq is up by 0.8%, whilst the S&P 500 has climbed 0.6%, reaching a new all-time high of 7,814.88. Equities are being buoyed by investors scaling back bets on imminent Fed interest rate hikes. This sentiment follows the easing of inflation, as evidenced by July reports released today and yesterday, alongside modest retreats in crude oil prices.

Macroeconomic data

Somewhat unusually, we begin today’s summary with macroeconomic data, following the release of July’s CPI and PPI inflation figures from the United States. What exactly did we learn?

Yesterday:

• The headline CPI inflation rate slowed to 3.4% (up 0.1% on a monthly basis).
• Excluding the most volatile prices of food and energy, core inflation also trended lower to 2.5% (with prices rising 0.2% month-on-month).

Today:

• The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to 4.7%.
• The core measure also moved downwards, reaching 4.2%.

Figure 1: US CPI and PPI Inflation (2018 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 13.08.2026

Whilst the decline in headline figures is largely attributable to lower fuel costs, the cooling of core measures is a welcome development. This data provides the Federal Reserve with greater flexibility, reducing the pressure for immediate monetary tightening. In the absence of major geopolitical headlines, macroeconomic releases appear to have returned to the spotlight, with investors scrutinising them closely.

An interest rate hike in September is no longer the market’s base-case scenario (approximately 35% market-implied probability), and a downward move before the end of the year is not yet fully priced in (approximately 94% market-implied probability).

Figure 2: Market Implied Pricing of Rate Hikes/Cuts by End of September 2026 (2025 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 13.08.2026

Stock market

This has bolstered the equity market. Looking closer at the Nasdaq 100, the best performers today are data centre memory suppliers such as SanDisk (+16.6%) and Western Digital (+8.6%).

Figure 3: Winners and Losers on the Nasdaq 100 (13.08.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 13.08.2026

Regarding SanDisk, the company unveiled long-term financial and technological objectives that significantly exceeded market expectations, dispelling previous analyst scepticism.

• Management anticipates that during the 2028–2030 fiscal years, revenue will grow at a mid-to-high teens annual rate. Furthermore, the non-GAAP target gross margin is set at approximately 80%, with the operating margin expected to reach 75%.
• The company announced new supply agreements that cover the vast majority of planned production for the 2027 and 2028 fiscal years.

It appears that the brutal July sell-off in the semiconductor sector was largely driven by technical factors, such as portfolio rebalancing and capital rotation, rather than a fundamental breakdown of the underlying businesses. Shares in memory sector companies reached levels considered heavily oversold, creating an ideal environment for a rebound as global risk sentiment improved.

Conversely, Cisco Systems is trading lower following lacklustre Q2 results. Investors were left disappointed by sales forecasts for the current financial year ($7.5 billion).