Daily Summary: SpaceX and the tech sector drive Wall Street, oil retreats sharply below $97

📈 Equity Markets and Companies

• An excellent quarterly report from SpaceX, which generated its first-ever profit of $4.4 billion, sparked a wave of optimism around tech companies and dispelled concerns about the justification of massive capital expenditures. At the same time, Elon Musk signaled the possibility of a merger with Tesla, whose shares are gaining on speculation about integrating Starlink technology with the artificial intelligence ecosystem.

• Markets eagerly await Tesla's own results, asking whether the autonomous robotaxi project can protect the electric vehicle manufacturer's operating profitability in the long run.
• In the computing infrastructure sector, Supermicro raised its revenue guidance by $4 billion, proving unabated demand for servers dedicated to artificial intelligence processes.
• Meanwhile, Anthropic is preparing for its stock market debut, though doubts are growing among analysts about whether astronomical valuations reaching trillions of dollars are fully backed by current monetization models.
• At the same time, OpenAI is expanding its ChatGPT Ads advertising tools to 89 markets and confirming that Microsoft remains its key cloud partner.
• Investors are anxiously analyzing the situation of the Meta conglomerate, which came under the spotlight ahead of its earnings release regarding the monetization of billions spent on AI infrastructure. Sentiment around the giant was dampened by a court ruling in New Mexico ordering a fine of $25 billion related to consumer privacy cases. Despite the heavy penalty, the company's shares managed to maintain positive momentum on a wave of overall enthusiasm in the Nasdaq 100 index.
• European stock markets posted a clear rebound following an earlier series of declines, led by the German DAX rising by 1.35%, while France's CAC 40 gained 1.06%. However, sentiment was cast in shadow by a sharp collapse in shares of the Carrefour chain, which suffered its deepest sell-off since the pandemic after cutting profit forecasts due to social unrest in France.
• On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the WIG20 index recorded a solid rebound of 1.54%, although domestic macroeconomic readings point to a progressive decline in consumer sentiment.
• Apple announced limited availability of the iPhone Duo model for walk-in customers on launch day, October 23.
• UBS analysts cut price targets for Netflix shares to $100 and automotive concern General Motors to $109.
• Pharmaceutical firm Merck announced a strategic partnership with Nvidia and Microsoft to develop models supporting rare cancer therapies.
• As of 7:55 PM, the S&P 500 stands at 7,808, gaining 0.29% for the day and 1.36% for the week, while the Nasdaq 100 stands at 30,062, gaining 0.56% for the day and 2.28% for the week, and the DAX stands at 25,766, gaining 0.97% for the day and 0.66% for the week.

🛢️ Commodities and Energy

• Crude oil prices saw a sharp reversal, falling below technical support at $97 after an earlier rise to $100.40. The sell-off was fueled by diplomatic reports suggesting converging positions in peace talks and an easing of sanction pressures. Holding prices below the $97 barrier opens room for a deeper correction toward lower support levels.
• A report by the US EIA brought a mixed picture of the US fuel balance. Crude oil inventories fell by 3.06 million barrels against a forecasted draw of only 0.34 million, while gasoline inventories shrank by 2.95 million barrels. However, a simultaneous unexpected rise in distillate stocks by 1.68 million barrels cooled buyers' enthusiasm and accelerated profit-taking on fuel futures.
• US natural gas prices are subject to a heavy sell-off ahead of the expiry of the futures contract series. A key fundamental factor weighing on valuations is the continuing unusually warm autumn in North America, which is noticeably curbing current heating demand.
• In the precious metals market, gold is consolidating around $4,136, reacting to reports of bullion reserve sales by authorities in Moscow to balance the budget. However, analysts assess that structural demand from emerging market central banks limits room for a deeper sell-off.
• The head of state oil company KPC stated that Kuwait is currently producing over 2 million barrels of oil per day, with seaborne exports exceeding 1.1 million barrels, returning to pre-regional crisis levels. Additionally, Saudi Arabia reached an agreement with France to increase diesel supplies to Europe.
• The UK government signaled a likely block on plans to exploit the strategic Rosebank oil field on environmental grounds.
• As of 7:55 PM, gold stands at 4,136, gaining 0.28% for the day and losing 0.66% for the week, while silver stands at 57.57, losing 0.61% for the day and gaining 1.13% for the week.

🏛️ Macroeconomics, Debt and Currencies

• Severe turbulence hit the French sovereign debt market, where 10-year bond yields crossed 5.009%, reaching a level unseen since 2002. This represents a risk premium widening relative to German Bunds to 159 bps, reflecting deep investor skepticism regarding the stability of Paris's public finances. This phenomenon fuels concerns about debt servicing costs across the eurozone, even as French equities managed to stay in positive territory.
• The US Treasury auctioned $13 billion in 20-year government bonds at a yield of 5.469%. The auction featured an elevated tail of 0.9 bps, signaling the need for the issuer to offer a discount, although direct demand from funds remained relatively stable. The effective federal funds rate held unchanged at 3.88%.
• In central banking, Australia's RBA hardened its tone, forcing investors to reprice the risk of an interest rate hike at the November meeting. In response to hawkish signals, the Australian dollar became the strongest currency of the session, gaining 0.33% against the US dollar.
• In the United States, President Donald Trump unveiled a proposal for a broad data center construction program, advocating direct citizen financial participation in tech profits. Concurrently, debate continues in analytical circles over whether states and taxpayers will be saddled with the costs of risky AI capital investments in the event of a market bubble burst.
• Japanese authorities announced a 40% reduction in maximum subsidies for new electric vehicle purchases, lowering them to 750,000 yen, taking effect at the start of 2027.
• As of 7:55 PM, GBPUSD stands at 1.3400, gaining 0.2% for the day and 0.7% for the week, while USDJPY stands at 158.16, gaining 0.03% for the day and 0.15% for the week, USDCHF stands at 0.8241, losing 0.01% for the day and 0.03% for the week, and the US Dollar Index stands at 101.48, losing 0.02% for the day and 0.14% for the week.

🌐 Geopolitics

• White House envoy Steve Witkoff reported progress in diplomatic negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, noting Moscow's acceptance of a proposal for a trilateral summit in Abu Dhabi in mid-November. Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks in Oslo with Nordic leaders regarding security guarantees and a mutual moratorium on attacks targeting energy infrastructure. Reports of a potential truce are helping de-escalate the geopolitical risk premium in commodity markets.
• The US Treasury tightened restrictions against the Iranian shadow fleet transporting oil, extending sanctions to additional legal entities in Panama and Greece. On the other hand, Washington issued a special license, HH, allowing for the safe offloading of crude from selected blocked vessels to avoid supply disruptions. However, Tehran maintains a firm diplomatic stance following reports of Israeli military aviation operations near its borders.
• Houthi rebels carried out a drone attack near the Duba oil terminal in Yemen and announced the failure of negotiations with Saudi Arabia, pledging a return to maritime blockades.
• Leaders of China and Russia agreed during working meetings to further deepen bilateral oil trade and strengthen resource ties ahead of the upcoming APEC summit.
• Representatives from Qatar, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Turkey signed a four-party agreement on joint defense technology development.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

• The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin continues a dynamic recovery toward $84,500, erasing losses from earlier in the month and supporting a bullish market scenario.
• The US CFTC commission published an initial regulatory interpretation regarding the classification of loan-financed Bitcoin purchase transactions, pointing to the need to meet strict physical asset delivery requirements.
• Concurrently, capital is dynamically flowing into leading altcoins, including Ethereum, Solana, and Uniswap projects, where institutional investors are building hedging positions.
• As of 7:55 PM, Bitcoin stands at 84,516, gaining 2.09% for the day and 4.32% for the week, while Ethereum stands at 2,513, gaining 2.47% for the day and 6.22% for the week, Solana stands at 108.40, gaining 1.84% for the day and 6.5% for the week, and XRP stands at 1.3847, gaining 4.23% for the day and 8.88% for the week.