- We are ending a week of trading on the financial markets, which became more tense towards the end due to the US Supreme Court's decision to invalidate some of the tariffs imposed on other countries.
- Trump has just begun a press conference in which he is commenting on the court's decision.
- President Donald Trump is considering imposing new, general tariffs on US trading partners following Thursday's Supreme Court ruling, which invalidated a significant portion of his earlier tariffs based on the IEEPA. According to the New York Times, the administration plans to use other trade regulations to circumvent the Supreme Court's decision and restore pressure on imports, with Trump emphasising: "Other alternatives will be used for tariffs. We can take more money." The President specifically pointed to the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232 on national security), signalling a continuation of protectionist policies despite legal barriers and increasing market uncertainty.
- Trump proposes introducing a 10 per cent tariff after the US Supreme Court overturned previous tariffs.
- Trump announced that he is imposing a global tariff rate of 10%, which will be imposed in addition to other tariffs for a period of five months. All Section 232 and 301 tariffs remain in force.
- I think the 10 per cent tariff will come into effect in three days, Trump said.
- Trump is threatening to impose tariffs of 15-30% on cars to protect the American automotive industry from imports. In addition, he has announced 20% tariffs on Chinese imports in response to the fentanyl problem. These announcements are part of a broader strategy to circumvent the Supreme Court ruling through other trade legislation.
- When asked about the obligation to return billions of dollars in revenue from invalidated tariffs, Trump stated that the case would go to court and take at least several years. This means that importers (companies and states) will fight for refunds in the US Commercial Court, but the government may play for time, citing sovereign immunity, administrative procedures or the lack of timely protests. In practice, this opens up a long period of legal uncertainty.
- Despite this, Wall Street is gaining value, although the US dollar itself remains under downward pressure. It is worth mentioning that the US dollar is currently the worst performing currency. We are currently seeing increased growth in the Australian dollar.
- Economic growth in the US slowed dramatically in the fourth quarter of 2025, falling from the previous, very optimistic and consumer-driven 4.4% to just 1.4%. At first glance, a result twice as low as the consensus, combined with the first inflation surprise in months, seems to scream "stagflation!", but the details of the BEA report look more like a strong foundation for inflation to rebound and an exceptionally weak White House policy balance sheet.
- Investors also learned about worse-than-expected PMI data, which together sent a dangerous combination of weaker economic growth and more persistent inflation. However, this picture is somewhat misleading, as it is largely distorted by the recent shutdown rather than reflecting the actual state of the US economy.
- Silver (SILVER) is up 5% today, breaking through 82.7 USD per ounce, while gold is up 1.4%, clearly maintaining yesterday's rise above USD 5,000 per ounce. Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran, where the risk of military confrontation with the US and Israel is growing, protracted and fruitless negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and the overall picture of global instability are causing investors to continue to favour hard assets.
- The composite PMI index for the eurozone rose to 51.9 in February (the highest in three months). Manufacturing reached a 44-month high (50.8 points), becoming the engine of growth. Orders are rising, but employment fell slightly. Although production costs are rising at their fastest pace in nearly three years, selling prices have slowed and business optimism continues to gather momentum.
- Moncler shares rose 13% after results significantly exceeded forecasts. The growth was driven by Asia (+11%) and strong sales of the Moncler and Stone Island brands. Revenue (€3.13 billion) and dividends (€1.40) exceeded expectations, improving sentiment across the luxury goods sector (LVMH, Hermes).
Three markets to watch next week (20.02.2026)
Trump will hold a press briefing on the Supreme Court's tariff decision in 12 minutes 💡
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