Daily Summary: US dollar reaches new highs, Wall Street, gold and bitcoin fall (23.09.2026)

Wednesday's trading session saw a sharp deterioration in sentiment across global markets. Following a multi-day decline, crude oil prices staged a rebound, alongside a rise in LNG prices. Combined with further hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and extraordinarily robust US PMI data, this led to heightened expectations of Fed interest rate hikes. Markets now anticipate that the FOMC will continue its tightening cycle as early as the October meeting.

Figure 1: Changes in Market Expectations for Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes (2026 - 2027)

Source: XTB Research, 23.09.2026

Note: The path from 4 weeks ago refers to a lower base level (i.e. interest rate levels prior to last week's rate hike)

10-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.12%, reaching their highest level since 2007. The technology sector, particularly sensitive to shifts in the bond market, suffered notable losses. However, the broader Wall Street market was not spared either:

• Nasdaq: -0,9%
• S&P 500: -0,7%
• Dow Jones: -0,5%

Attention also turned to the foreign exchange market, driven by the continued appreciation of the US dollar. The EURUSD pair broke sharply below the 1.14 level, falling by more than 0.5% today.

Figure 2: Performance of Major Currencies Against the US Dollar (10.09.2026 - 23.09.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 23.09.2026

Stock Market

Pressure today fell primarily on technology stocks, which had recorded substantial gains in recent days. The SOXX index dropped by more than 1.5%, snapping a six-session winning streak. Sandisk and Micron surrendered part of yesterday's gains (down 3.0% and 1.9%, respectively), while Nvidia also suffered losses (-1.5%). This pullback can be attributed to profit-taking following the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new all-time high yesterday, as well as rising oil prices and US bond yields.

Figure 3: Gainers and Losers in the Nasdaq 100 (23.09.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 23.09.2026

Small-cap stocks also underperformed, with the Russell index losing 1.6% today.

Meta the Star of September

Meta shares gained nearly 2% today. Month-to-date in September, the company is up almost 30%, putting it on track for its best monthly performance since July 2013.

The primary catalyst remains Muse, an AI agent capable of transforming not only user engagement across Meta's applications but also the monetization model of its entire ecosystem. Some analysts expect Meta to capture market share in user traffic and customer relationships from platforms such as Booking, Uber, and DoorDash.

Fed Receives Further Justification for Rate Hikes

Monetary policy remains the focal point for markets. Investors are increasingly pricing in further rate increases at the upcoming October meeting, driven by highly hawkish statements from Fed officials and robust macroeconomic data.

Speaking in Chicago today, Governor Michael Barr highlighted the necessity for continued rate increases. He noted that the US economy remains strong and the labour market solid, providing scope for further monetary tightening.

Rising interest rate expectations exerted upward pressure on bond yields. US 10-year Treasury yields rose by approximately 14 bps today to 5.08%.

Figure 4: US 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yields vs. Fed Funds Rate (2026)

Source: XTB Research, 23.09.2026

PMI Data Exceed Expectations Again

This economic strength was confirmed today by key leading indicators for the US economy.

Figure 5: US PMI Indices (2023 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 23.09.2026

Indicators for both sectors came in significantly above consensus. The Services PMI rose to 58.7, while the Manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.0. On a composite basis, these are the strongest readings in 5 years, consistent with annualised GDP growth of around 5%.

According to the S&P report, conditions in the labour market improved markedly, with businesses actively expanding headcount to tackle substantial order backlogs. These backlogs accumulated at their fastest pace since May 2022.

Cost pressures intensified once again, with businesses increasingly passing higher costs on to customers.

Oil Snaps Losing Streak

Brent crude gained over 3% today, climbing back above $102 per barrel and snapping a multi-day losing streak. WTI rose by 2.4% to just below $93. While Trump signaled progress in US-Iran talks, markets appeared to attach little significance to the statements.

In this context, it is worth highlighting the report from the US Department of Energy, which announced a 3 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories for the week ended 18 September. Meanwhile, both crude imports and exports declined significantly, falling by 1.2 million and 1.6 million barrels, respectively. Gasoline inventories also fell (by 1.7 million barrels), while refinery capacity utilisation dropped to 94%.

Figure 6: Brent and WTI Crude Oil (2026)

Source: XTB Research, 23.09.2026

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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB