Morning Wrap: Tech Crash in Asia and Hawkish Central Banks in the Shadow of an Oil Shock (13.10.2026)

• South Korea's Kospi plummeted overnight by about 7% (below the 6,000 level, currently paring losses to 6.5%), dragged down by a global sell-off in the semiconductor sector and concerns over the sustainability of the AI rally amid rising infrastructure costs (a 60% increase in computing power rental prices).
• Middle East tensions escalate after Iranian forces struck 6 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz area, prompting airlines including Etihad and Qatar Airways to cancel flights to Saudi Arabia. Brent crude quotes hold around $105.4 per barrel despite Saudi emergency plans to expand pipeline capacity by 1.2 million bpd.
• Central bankers toughen their stance: Beth Hammack from the Fed advocated for further policy tightening as inflation spreads beyond the tech sector, Megan Greene from the BoE warned against delaying rate hikes, and RBA minutes maintained a hawkish tone following Australia's rate hike to 4.60%.

🇺🇸 Wall Street: How Did the Session End?

• Monday's session on Wall Street brought clear sector divergence amid a closed Treasury cash market (Columbus Day): the Dow Jones rose 0.38% (to 51,856 pts), the S&P 500 lost 0.06% (to 7,807 pts), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.71% (to 30,665 pts), marking its fifth consecutive declining session in the semiconductor segment.
• Morning futures trading points to continued selling pressure on tech: US100 drops 0.75% toward 30,646 pts, US500 loses 0.20% to around 7,841 pts, while US30 gains 0.20% (around 52,230 pts) and US2000 rises 0.11% (to around 2,815 pts).
• The VIX volatility index rises 0.96% to around 16.84 pts, reflecting growing uncertainty ahead of major bank earnings releases and key CPI inflation readings later in the week.
• Top gainers in the S&P 500: Fair Isaac (FICO; +10.71%, Financials), Medtronic (MDT; +3.77%, Healthcare), Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH; +3.37%, Healthcare), Meta Platforms (META; +3.35%, Communication), Constellation Brands (STZ; +3.08%, Consumer Staples), Insulet (PODD; +3.05%, Healthcare).
• Investors clearly rotated capital toward defensive medical sectors and stable market leaders.
• Top losers in the S&P 500: Ciena (CIEN; -9.99%, Technology), Lumentum Holdings (LITE; -9.83%, Technology), Coherent (COHR; -7.88%, Technology), Carvana (CVNA; -6.58%, Consumer Discretionary), Bloom Energy (BE; -6.40%, Industrials), SanDisk (SNDK; -5.96%, Technology).
• The slump focused on optical infrastructure and memory suppliers for data centers over fears of energy bottlenecks and revisions to AI capital expenditure.

🌏 Asia

• The Kospi experienced a massive sell-off of about 7% (dropping below the psychological barrier of 6,000 pts to its lowest level since late July), triggered by a global flight from AI chip and component makers along with rising inflation fears driven by high oil prices.
• The Nikkei 225 (JP225) lost 1.01%, slipping toward 67,657 pts (after falling over 2.6% during the session), following the sell-off in Japanese tech stocks tied to the semiconductor supply chain.
• Markets in China and Hong Kong were also under selling pressure: ChiNext lost about 3%, the Hang Seng (HK.cash) fell 0.23% to around 24,132 pts, and China A50 (CH50cash) declined 0.50% to around 13,653 pts due to concerns over global growth and trade sanctions.
• Australia's ASX 200 (AU200.cash) maintained relative resilience, gaining a modest 0.06% to around 8,772 pts, supported by the commodity and energy sectors.

🇪🇺 Europe Before Open

• Futures on Western European indices suggest a cautious start to the day: DAX 40 (DE40) is down 0.07% near 25,368 pts, Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50) slips 0.10% to around 6,197 pts, and France's CAC 40 (FRA40) falls 0.23% to around 7,796 pts.
• Relative strength is shown by the UK's FTSE 100 (UK100), up 0.19% near 10,708 pts, aided by the presence of oil and defensive stocks along with better-than-expected UK retail sales data.
• The VSTOXX volatility index drops 2.88% to around 18.53 pts, suggesting no panic on European trading floors despite market turmoil in Asia.

💱 Currencies and Commodities

• EURUSD fluctuates around 1.1171 (+0.13%), rebounding slightly after setting a new low for the year yesterday at 1.1155 under pressure from a strong dollar and rising energy prices.
• USDJPY pulls back 0.16% toward 158.27; the yen gained support from elevated producer inflation in Japan, fueling expectations of BoJ rate hikes.
• GBPUSD gains 0.08% near 1.3216, supported by hawkish remarks from BoE's Megan Greene, while USDPLN stabilizes around 3.9246 (-0.04%).
• Gold (GOLD) rises 0.55% to near $4,194 per ounce on safe-haven demand amid the escalating Middle East conflict and a slight pull-back in US bond yields.
• Silver (SILVER) gains 0.39%, trading around $60.49 per ounce.
• Crude oil sees a mild correction following recent strong gains: WTI crude (OIL.WTI) falls 0.67% to around $92.54, while Brent (OIL) drops 0.48% to near $105.41 per barrel in reaction to reports that Saudi Arabia plans to convert a gas pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and boost exports by 1.2 million bpd within 7–8 weeks.

📊 Macroeconomics: What Data Did We See?

• United Kingdom — BRC retail sales monitor for September rose 1.0% YoY (consensus: 0.8%, previous: 0.5%), signaling consumer resilience, although the report highlighted a painful 17% surge in fuel bills.
• Japan — Bank lending in September grew 5.3% YoY (consensus: 5.5%, previous: 5.3%), showing steady demand for financing.
• Japan — September PPI producer inflation rose 6.8% YoY (consensus: 7.6%, previous: 7.6%), and fell 0.3% MoM (consensus: +0.5%). Despite reading below expectations, price momentum remains elevated, with yen-denominated import prices jumping nearly 25%, keeping a BoJ rate hike scenario on the table.
• Australia — NAB business confidence indicator for September fell sharply to -13 pts (previous: -8 pts / -9 pts), while business conditions remained at -1 pt, reflecting the impact of the oil shock and restrictive monetary policy on the corporate sector.

🔑 Key Overnight Developments

• Persian Gulf Escalation: According to UKMTO reports, Iranian forces attacked 6 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz area on Sunday, marking the highest daily count since the outbreak of war; carriers Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways cancelled or suspended flights to destinations including Riyadh and Dammam.
• Saudis' Emergency Plan: Saudi Arabia is exploring possibilities to expand oil pipeline throughput to the Red Sea up to 10 million bpd; converting an existing gas line is expected to deliver an additional 1.2 million bpd in export capacity within 7–8 weeks, bypassing the blocked Strait of Hormuz.
• Hawkish RBA Minutes: Minutes from the September meeting (rate hike to 4.60%) showed the central bank fears a wage-price spiral driven by the AI boom, supply bottlenecks, and high oil prices, keeping the door open for further rate hikes.
• Firm Stance from Fed and BoE Officials: Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) emphasized that US rates must rise higher to cool consumer and capital demand driven by wealth and technology; meanwhile, Megan Greene (BoE) warned that waiting to observe second-round inflation effects would be a mistake and proactive action is needed.
• AI Bottlenecks Worsen: Goldman Sachs identified power and computing capacity shortages as key barriers to AI expansion; chip rental rates surged 60%, and Broadcom's CEO compared the current mania stage to a casino, despite forecasting its own chip sales at $230 billion.
• Chinese Central Bank Supports Yuan: PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7298 (the strongest yuan level since February 2023; the market estimated 6.6981); Goldman Sachs analysts estimate the yuan is undervalued by up to 25%.
• BlackRock Shifts Positioning: The investment giant downgraded US equities to "neutral" and went overweight on US Treasuries, pointing out that 10-year yields approaching 5.25% present too strong a competitor for stock market valuations.

📅 What's Ahead Today?

• 08:00 | Germany | Final CPI consumer inflation rate for September (consensus: 0.6% MoM, previous: 0.6% MoM).
• 09:45 | USA | Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller — key in light of hawkish statements from Hammack and bond market reactions following the holiday.
• 12:00 | USA | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September (consensus: 98.1 pts, previous: 98.7 pts).
• 14:15 | USA | ADP Weekly Employment Report (previous: 23.8k).
• 16:00 | USA | Existing Home Sales for September (consensus: 3.95m, previous: 3.98m).
• All Day | China | Release of M2 money supply data (consensus: 7.4% YoY) and new loans, plus IMF Meetings sessions.

🔎 Key Instruments to Watch

• NASDAQ 100 (US100) — 1-year Z-Score: +1.41, extreme 5-year overbought level at +2.09 (98.4th percentile) with RSI at 47.4; futures falling 0.75% after the collapse in Asian chipmakers and US yields near 5.25% increases the risk of a deeper valuation correction in tech stocks.
• China A50 (CH50cash) — Short-term extreme oversold status measured by 1-year Z-Score at -2.77 and RSI at just 14.6 (5-year Z-Score +0.13, 60.2nd percentile); with aggressive fixing strength by the PBOC for the yuan and upcoming Chinese credit data, the market is primed for a technical rebound.
• Brent Crude (OIL) — Strong multi-year overbought condition (5-year Z-Score +1.68, 1-year Z-Score +1.34, 91.9th 5-year percentile) with RSI at 54.0; trading around $105.4, quotes remain at the epicenter of geopolitics — direct tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz clashing with Saudi bypass plans will determine the commodity's direction and global inflation expectations.