Daily summary: Will ECB be more hawkish than FED?

EUR/USD

Forex

After Jackson Hole, there was speculation that the ECB could be more hawkish than the Fed during its upcoming decision
There were suggestions from ECB members that there could be a 75 basis point hike and a significant acceleration of QT, or balance sheet reduction!
During Jackson Hole, ECB members were said to have hinted that they would like to see a reduction in the balance sheet
In addition, there was a marked drop in gas prices today, due to the 83% filling of German gas storage facilities. The filling of storage facilities is higher than previously expected. Prices fell sharply below €300/MWh today
In addition to the drop in gas prices, there was the first limit to the rise in energy prices in Europe
Declines in energy prices in Europe led the EURUSD to go above parity, but later retested this key level
US gas prices retreated, testing the $9 area
In turn, oil went sharply above $100 per barrel, despite news from the IEA that further reductions in reserves may continue
Wall Street retreats further and continues the sell-off started after Powell's speech. Indices lose more than 1% amid rising expectations for US rate hikes
Gold is trying to return to the $1,740 area, benefiting from the strength of the euro against the dollar. On the other hand, the dollar remains strong in the market, primarily against currencies with lower interest rates (JPY)
The current expectation is that there could be a 75bp hike before the Fed in September, but there is also a scenario of 3 hikes of 50bp, which would bring the main rate down to 4%

5 December 2025, 4:30 PM

3 markets to watch next week (05.12.2025)

5 December 2025, 1:32 PM

BREAKING: Lower Unemployment in Canada🍁USDCAD sharply declines📉

5 December 2025, 10:05 AM

BREAKING: Euro-zone GDP slightly above expectations!📈 EURUSD remains stable

5 December 2025, 7:01 AM

BREAKING: Germany industrial orders for October higher than expected; EURUSD gains 📌

Forex

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Daily summary: Will ECB be more hawkish than FED?

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