Daily summary: Worse economic data does not spoil the mood on Wall Street

7:04 PM 18 July 2023

1) US retail sales for June rise by just 0.2% m/m (0.5% m/m was expected), while core sales rise by 0.2% m/m (0.3% m/m was expected).

2) Industrial production falls by 0.5% m/m for June, the same as the month before, although zero growth was expected. The drop in production reflects weak industrial sentiment as illustrated by, among other things, the ISM index for manufacturing, which has remained below 50 points for a long time

3) EURUSD tested levels above 1.1250 today, although gains were later realised. Nevertheless, we have seen further declines in US and European yields today

4) Gold tested the USD 1985 per ounce area on a wave of a weak dollar and falling yields

5) Natural gas futures extend gains to +5% 

6) Despite the weak dollar, USDCAD rebounded after Canadian inflation fell to 2.8% y/y, clearly lower than the expected 3.0% y/y. This shows that the BoC may not raise interest rates again

7) Today we learnt more bank financial results. Bank of America mostly showed better results, including in the trading segment (although worse data in FICC trading). Morgan Stanley showed slightly worse results, mainly in the trading business, but the company's shares were clearly gaining.

8) Strong gains were also seen today on Microsoft, which was at odds with the trend of technology companies that were oversold today. This follows the announcement that Microsoft's 365 service will charge for AI services

9) The Dow Jones through banks and Microsoft gained more than 1% today, while the Nasdaq lost initially, although Microsoft changed the sentiment on the index today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained around 0.5%.

10) Tomorrow we will hear reports from Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Tesla and IBM

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