3:03 PM · 25 May 2022

Declining order growth lowers expectations for hikes

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US durable goods orders expand 0.4% m/m, with expectations for 0.6% m/m and previous 0.4% m/m increase (revised up from 1.1% m/m)
Orders Ex-Transport expand 0.3% m/m, with expectations for 0.6% m/m and previous 1.2% m/m
Orders are up 6 of last 7 months.
Consecutively weaker data from US make us less confident about strong US rate hikes
In July 50bp hike is already priced below 100% and in September 50bp hike only at 30%
Dollar stops its today's appreciation

Orders last fell in February and earlier in September. Source: US Census Bureau

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