German CPI inflation data for November is a key European macro reading of the day. Data for the whole of Germany will be released at 1:00 pm GMT and median consensus point to headline price growth remaining unchanged at 10.4% YoY. However, those expectations may be outdated following the release of state-level CPI data from Europe's largest economy. All 6 state-level readings that were already released showed a deceleration in consumer price growth in November. This is a strong hint that German reading at 1:00 pm GMT will not show inflation remaining unchanged and will instead surprise to the downside.
German state-level CPI readings for November
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North Rhine Westphalia: 10.4% YoY vs 11.0% YoY previously
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Hesse: 9.7% YoY vs 9.9% YoY previously
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Baden Wuerttemberg: 9.6% YoY vs 9.8% YoY previously
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Bavaria: 10.9% YoY vs 11.0% YoY previously
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Brandenburg: 10.5% YoY vs 10.8% YoY previously
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Saxony: 9.9% YoY vs 10.1% YoY previously
It should be also noted that Spain CPI reading for November, released today at 8:00 am GMT, also surprised to the downside and decelerated from 7.3% to 6.6% YoY (exp. 7.5% YoY). If inflation in Germany slows as well, ECB could have more reasons to slow the pace of tightening to 50 bp rate hike in December, down from 75 bp rate hikes delivered at two previous meetings.
EURUSD is rather unimpressed by deceleration in German state-level inflation data. The pair continues to trade in between 50- and 200-hour moving averages, awaiting a catalyst for a break. Source: xStation5
