Economic calendar: Calm beginning of the week

Summary:

• Expect thin liquidity over the day due to a holiday in both the US and the UK
• Polish unemployment data will be released before noon
• ECB’s Coeure to take the floor

There is no doubt that Monday is all about the European elections’ results and this should be a major topic over the day taking into account possibly thin liquidity across financial markets due to a holiday in the US and the UK. This also means that a full response to the elections’ fallout will be known tomorrow. Looking beyond Monday we will be offered a rate decision of the Bank of Canada, a second reading of the US GDP report as well as preliminary inflation data from European countries. What to watch today?

9:00 am BST - Polish unemployment data: Poland saw a clear victory of the Eurosceptic party - Law and Justice - getting more than 45% of the votes (after more than 99% of the votes already counted). This result means that there unlikely to see further loosening of fiscal policy over the next coming months ahead of the national parliamentary elections. In turn, lack of further fiscal stimuli would mean a lowered need for tighter monetary policy (however, core inflation has recently accelerated and is projected to exceed 3% at the turn of the year). Meanwhile, the Polish labour market remains very tight with the jobless rate probably falling to 5.6% in April compared to 5.9% in March. On top of this, we will also get a quarterly release concerning the labour market from the Polish Statistics Office.

Central bankers’ speeches:

• 9:40 am BST - ECB’s Coeure

The USDPLN is rebounding from the key short-term trend line. The first obstacle for buyers can be localized in the vicinity of 3.86. Source: xStation5