Economic Calendar 🗽 U.S. Retail Sales and UoM Data in Focus

Today’s macroeconomic calendar is relatively busy, with investors focusing primarily on data from the eurozone and the United States. The second estimate of eurozone GDP for Q2 will be released in the morning, while U.S. retail sales will be the key publication later in the day. The session will also feature Canadian data and the University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment survey for August.

Economic Calendar (August 14)

• 07:45 AM GMT France – July CPI: previous 2.1% YoY and 0.6% MoM.
• 07:45 AM GMT France – Final July HICP: previous 2.4% YoY and 0.6% MoM.
• 10:00 AM GMT Eurozone – Second estimate of Q2 GDP: expected 1.0% YoY and 0.4% QoQ; previous 1.0% and 0.4%, respectively.
• 10:00 AM GMT Eurozone – Q2 employment change: previous 0.1% QoQ.
• 01:30 PM GMT U.S. – July retail sales: expected +0.1% MoM; previous +0.2% MoM.
• 01:30 PM GMT U.S. – July core retail sales: expected +0.2% MoM; previous -0.2% MoM.
• 01:30 PM GMT U.S. – Retail sales: previous 6.7% YoY.
• 01:30 PM GMT Canada – June wholesale sales: expected +2.7% MoM; previous 0.0%.
• 01:30 PM GMT Canada – June manufacturing sales: expected -0.1% MoM; previous +1.3%.
• 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for August: expected 55.0; previous 55.2.
• 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Expectations: expected 55.2; previous 55.4.
• 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – University of Michigan Current Conditions: expected 54.8; previous 54.8.
• 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations: expected 3.3%; previous 3.3%.
• 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations: expected 4.2%; previous 4.2%.
• 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – June business inventories: expected +0.1% MoM; previous +0.3% MoM.

Given today’s data calendar, EURUSD could see a noticeable increase in volatility in either direction. Weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales could influence investors’ expectations for U.S. interest rates this year and would likely significantly reduce the probability of any rate hike, especially if accompanied by a weak University of Michigan sentiment reading and lower inflation expectations.

For EURUSD, such a scenario could theoretically support an attempt to move back above 1.16 and potentially break above the line of least resistance near 1.155. On the other hand, strong retail sales and improving consumer sentiment could push the currency pair back toward its underlying downward trend. The second estimate of eurozone GDP is likely to be of secondary importance for EURUSD, as investors do not expect any significant revisions.

Source: xStation5