Economic Calendar: US consumer sentiment and Fed speeches in the focus (26.06.2026)

Friday's macroeconomic calendar is relatively empty, and trading volume could drop significantly as the market closes out a week of dynamic declines, while investors digest yesterday's PCE inflation data and hawkish comments from Fed members.

Today's session will take place without any "heavyweight" data. The only releases scheduled for today are the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, alongside speeches from more Fed members—Williams and Kashkari. In addition to stock indices, the EURUSD pair should also be in the spotlight, having slipped below key support at 1.14 at the end of the week.

Key Releases from the Asian Session

• Japan: The June core CPI reading for the Tokyo region came in at 1.6% year-on-year. While the result was fully in line with the market consensus (1.6% y/y), it indicates a clear acceleration in price dynamics compared to the previous month (1.3% y/y). This maintains pressure on the Bank of Japan regarding further rate hikes.

• New Zealand and USA: The overnight session also brought speeches from central bank representatives—RBNZ Chairwoman Breman and FOMC Member Goolsbee—which shaped the morning sentiment across USD and NZD-related pairs.

Macroeconomic Calendar

• 08:00 Norway - Retail Sales ex-Autos s.a. (m/m) (May). Actual: -2.1% | Previous: 0.3%

• 08:00 Sweden - PPI (y/y) (May). Actual: 6.6% | Previous: 4.7%

• 09:00 Sweden - Consumer Confidence Index (June). Previous: 92.4

• 09:00 Sweden - Manufacturing Confidence Index (June). Previous: 100.5

• 09:00 Slovakia - PPI (y/y) (May). Previous: 2.6%

• 10:30 Germany - Speech by Bundesbank Chairman Joachim Nagel

• 14:30 USA - Goods Trade Balance (May). Consensus: -85.1 bn USD | Previous: -82.4 bn USD

• 16:00 USA - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (June). Consensus: 50 | Previous: 44.8

• 16:00 USA - Short-term Inflation Expectations (June). Consensus: 4.6% | Previous: 4.8%

• 16:00 USA - Long-term Inflation Expectations (June). Consensus: 3.4% | Previous: 3.9%

• 16:30 USA - Speech by New York Fed President John Williams

• 17:30 USA - Speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

3 Markets to Watch Today

• EURUSD – The major currency pair will be fully under the influence of this afternoon's US publications. The June University of Michigan index reading (consensus: 50) and, above all, the sub-components regarding short- and long-term inflation expectations of Americans will be crucial for the dollar's trajectory. Added volatility ahead of the weekend could be triggered by hawkish or dovish tones in the upcoming speeches by the Fed's Williams and Kashkari.

• Brent Crude (OIL) – Commodity prices are moving near local resistance levels due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. At 19:00, investors will receive the weekly Baker Hughes report on the US rig count (consensus expects a slight increase to 436). Any drop in US drilling activity could provide a pretext for a price bounce before the week closes.

• Nasdaq 100 (US100) – US tech index futures have come under pressure again following a selloff in Apple shares and Microsoft's announcement regarding XBOX price hikes due to rising component costs. Alongside the anxiety surrounding the "AI Trade," the Nasdaq could be further weighed down by hawkish messaging from the Fed.