Economic calendar: US housing market data in focus 🔎

Global financial market sentiment is improving after the United States and Iran reached a breakthrough framework peace agreement that is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland. The reports have significantly reduced the geopolitical risk premium in commodity markets, pushing Brent crude below $83 per barrel and WTI below $80 per barrel.

The euphoric reaction to the de-escalation has triggered a powerful rotation of capital toward risk assets. Nevertheless, central banks remain hawkish, arguing that inflationary pressures caused by months of disrupted commodity supplies have already become embedded in the global economy.

Today’s session will bring key ZEW sentiment indicators for Germany and the Eurozone, alongside U.S. housing market data and Poland’s final core inflation reading.

Key Releases from the Asian Session

• Hawkish Bank of Japan decision: the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0%, marking the highest borrowing cost in Japan since 1995. The decision passed by a 7–1 vote, with Governor Ueda absent due to hospitalization.

• Interest Rate stability in Australia: the Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, reflecting slowing GDP growth and stabilization in the domestic labor market.

• Chinese economic data: China’s industrial production and retail sales figures delivered mixed signals regarding the ongoing slowdown in domestic demand.

Economic Calendar

• 10:00 AM BST – Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; Consensus: -6.0; Previous: -10.2

• 10:00 AM BST – Eurozone: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; Consensus: N/A; Previous: -9.1

• 01:30 PM BST – United States: Building Permits; Consensus: 1,420K; Previous: 1,423K

• 01:30 PM BST – United States: Housing Starts; Consensus: 1,420K; Previous: 1,465K

• 09:40 PM BST – United States: API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; Consensus: N/A; Previous: -9.119M