Economic calendar: US Non-Farm Payrolls and Supreme Court decision on tariffs in focus🗽

Today, market attention will be focused primarily on U.S. economic data, with the December Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report at the absolute center of attention. Expectations point to a continued picture of a “healthy” economy, with rising wages, lower unemployment, and a slightly stronger employment gain. Such a scenario could support the U.S. dollar. Overall volatility may remain elevated as markets also await a U.S. Supreme Court  decision regarding whether the legal basis for the current trade tariffs will be upheld. Expectations around the ruling are mixed, but the most likely outcome appears to be confirmation of the validity of the existing tariffs and the revenue they generate, alongside the application of tools that could limit how easily the U.S. administration can reintroduce similar measures in the future under the letter of the law. Finally, preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data will be published later in the day.

Economic Calendar 

7:00 AM GMT – Switzerland: Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted). Expected: 3.1% vs 2.9% previously

8:00 AM GMT – Italy: Retail sales (previous: 1.3% y/y)

9:00 AM GMT – Eurozone: Retail sales

• Expected: 1.6% y/y vs 1.5% previously
• Expected: 0.1% m/m vs 0.0% previously

12:30 PM GMT – United States: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Expected: 70K vs 64K previously

• Private sector employment: 75K forecast vs 69K previously

• Manufacturing employment: -5K expected vs -5K previously

• Unemployment rate: 4.5% expected vs 4.6% previously

• Average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m vs +0.1% previously (3.6% y/y forecast vs 3.5% previously)

• Housing starts: +1.8% expected vs -8.5% previously

• Building permits: +1.5% expected vs -2.3% previously

12:30 PM GMT – Canada: Labour market report. Expected: -2.5K vs +53.5K previously

• Unemployment rate: 6.65% expected vs 6.5% previously

• Wage growth: 3.8% y/y expected vs 4.0% previously

2:00 PM GMT – United States: University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment (January). Expected: 53.5 vs 52.9 previously

• Long-term inflation expectations: 3.3% expected vs 3.2% previously

• Short-term inflation expectations: 4.1% expected vs 4.2% previously

2:00 PM GMT – United States: Supreme Court decision on the legality of trade tariffs (Note: the exact timing may change.)

Central Banker Speeches & Meetings

5:35 PM GMT – Speech by Fed’s Thomas Barkin

6:00 PM GMT – Oil industry executives are set to meet with Trump