Fundamental picture of the NATGAS market

NATGAS is starting the new trading week with nearly 2% declines. Natural gas is thus reacting to the forecast cooling in the US, especially in the central and eastern parts of the country. NATGAS will break through the seasonal energy peak over the next few days, after which demand for the commodity for energy purposes will decline. Here are some charts that will outline the current fundamental situation in the gas market:

A downward revision of U.S. weather forecasts limits the potential for a surge in demand as we approach the soon-to-be fallen U.S. energy peak. Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

Gas demand is thus falling, although it remains within the upper limit of the channel set by the 5-year average. Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

Weekly inventory change data are back above the average for the 5-year trading range, further highlighting the high levels of overall US crude inventories. Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

NATGAS continues to hover below the 100-day exponential moving average (purple curve), which may imply a willingness on the supply side to deepen declines. The current fundamentals in the gas market are rather negative in the short term, nevertheless it is worth keeping in mind that both the seasonality of the quotation and the RSI indicator open a window for a sharp rebound if the fundamental situation were to improve.

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commodities

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Fundamental picture of the NATGAS market

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