Geopolitical Briefing (06.02.2026): Is Iran Still a Risk Factor?

• The situation surrounding the Islamic Republic of Iran remains serious and unstable. Increased military activity by the United States and its allies indicates a possible scenario of significant escalation in the region. The market appears to be underpricing the risk of escalation.
• In recent days, it has been formally confirmed that delegations from Iran and the United States are continuing diplomatic talks in Oman, including discussions regarding the nuclear program. Iran maintains its uranium enrichment policy, which is unacceptable to the United States. Despite ongoing negotiations, the U.S. is accelerating the redeployment of units to the Strait of Hormuz region, clearly signalling that the negotiations may be merely a delaying tactic. According to the Associated Press, the American delegation left the negotiation venue without any constructive agreements. The ultimate objective of the United States and the precise method of implementation remain unknown.
• Simultaneously, confirmed executions of an unspecified number of detained protesters are taking place, despite explicit warnings from Donald Trump to refrain from such repression.
• Beyond U.S. forces, further deployments by European states have been observed in recent days. This time, the movements concern the territory of Cyprus, where Royal Air Force assets have appeared. These bases maintain a permanent presence of combat fighter aircraft, transport aircraft, and aerial refuelling tankers, which have been used in regional operations in the past. Historically, RAF Akrotiri has served as a staging point for flights over the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean during previous escalations.
• Similar transport and combat operations from Cyprus have occurred in the context of earlier conflicts. However, further intensification of these activities may be interpreted as a sign of European concern about a potential expansion of the conflict beyond the traditional Middle Eastern theatre.
• According to available sources, elements of the 160th SOAR, known as the “Night Stalkers” — the same aviation unit responsible for the capture operation of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela — have been deployed to Europe.
• Open-source information indicates a significant surge in U.S. transport flights toward the Middle East. Since the beginning of the year, more than 120 transport flights have already been conducted. These figures suggest that a nearly inevitable strike on Iran may not be limited to precision operations, but could instead take the form of strategic bombing aimed at infrastructure collapse, similar to the intervention in Serbia in 1999 or the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
• In such a scenario, the regime may be provoked into a fight for survival, employing all available means, primarily ballistic missiles, drones, and surviving cells of terrorist organizations in the region and beyond.

Kamil Szczepański
Junior Financial Markets Analyst, XTB