German inflation data well below expectations. A dovish signal for ECB?

German inflation data came in below market expectations, showing that prices declined by 0.1% m/m in May according to the HICP measure and by as much as 0.2% m/m based on CPI. The release carries a clearly dovish tone ahead of the upcoming European Central Bank meeting.

German HICP YoY (Preliminary): 2.70% (forecast: 2.8%, previous: 2.90%)
German CPI YoY (Preliminary): 2.60% (forecast: 2.9%, previous: 2.90%)
German HICP MoM (Preliminary): -0.10% (forecast: 0.0%, previous: 0.50%)
German CPI MoM (Preliminary): -0.20% (forecast: 0.1%, previous: 0.60%)

EUR/USD remains below 1.166 today and is still trading beneath the key resistance marked by the 200-day EMA (red line). The pair is currently consolidating within the 1.1570–1.1760 range, while the moving averages are flattening, suggesting a lack of a clear directional impulse. An RSI reading near 47 and a neutral MACD indicate a balance between buyers and sellers. From a technical perspective, a breakout above 1.1760 could open the way toward 1.19, while a move below 1.1570 would increase the risk of a test of the 1.14–1.15 support zone.

Source: xStation5

10 July 2026, 6:35 PM

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