Iran’s Permission or Risk of Attack. The New Reality in the Strait of Hormuz

According to the latest media reports, Iran has announced that ships wishing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz will need to obtain its permission. In practice, this means an attempt to take control of one of the most important shipping routes in the world. At the same time, statements from the Iranian armed forces warn that any vessel attempting to cross the strait without authorization may be attacked, which has led many ship operators to avoid taking such a high risk.

As a result, this strategic maritime route is now largely paralyzed. Ship traffic has dropped sharply, and many vessels remain on both sides of the strait, waiting to see how events unfold. The situation is further complicated by the fact that before the current conflict, roughly one fifth of global oil and gas shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the key points in the global economy.

This has enormous implications for energy markets. Any disruption to navigation in this area immediately affects global commodity prices and shipping costs. Even a partial blockade of such a vital trade route can trigger a domino effect across the world economy, as a large portion of oil exports from the Persian Gulf countries must pass through this narrow passage.

Additionally, reports suggest that Iran may deploy naval mines in the strait to further hinder shipping and increase pressure on the countries involved in the conflict. The very possibility of such tactics underscores how serious the situation is and how little it would take to provoke an even greater escalation of tensions in the region.

At the same time, countries involved in the conflict have different perspectives on its future course. The U.S. administration signals that it is not interested in unlimited military escalation. In statements, President Donald Trump suggested that the possibilities for further bombing of additional targets in Iran are increasingly limited and that it is preferable to seek ways to end the current phase of the conflict.

Israel, on the other hand, takes a different approach, declaring that operations against Iran may continue even without the direct involvement of the United States. According to Israeli authorities, airstrikes on targets connected to Iran’s military infrastructure could continue as long as deemed necessary for the country’s security.

As a result, the conflict in the Middle East does not appear to be moving toward a quick resolution. On the contrary, ongoing military actions, tensions at sea, and differences in the approach of various countries suggest that the situation could remain unstable for a long time. A single decision regarding such a strategic location as the Strait of Hormuz could have consequences not only regionally but also globally, affecting maritime security and the stability of the entire world economy.