The Trump–Putin summit will take place today at 7 PM GMT at a military base in Alaska, with the primary focus on negotiating a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky has not been invited and fears a “freezing” of the conflict along with the informal recognition of Russian control over one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory.
- In comments to the media, Trump suggested he would “pressure” Putin to achieve satisfactory results from today’s talks, putting the probability of their possible failure at “only” 25%. As a result, European defense stocks are down today, with the market pricing in a real chance of a ceasefire in Ukraine.
- Trump aims to strengthen his image as a global peacemaker and secure the Nobel Peace Prize; he has long described the war as a “bloodbath” with the risk of escalation. Putin has gained a certain image boost — able to demonstrate that attempts to isolate Russia have failed and that Moscow has returned to high-level diplomatic engagement.
- Sources suggest the Kremlin may be open to compromise due to economic problems and the costs of continuing the war. A potential compromise could involve freezing the front lines in their current shape, providing guarantees of non-violation of NATO’s eastern borders, and partially lifting sanctions on Russia.
- Trump has stated that, following his meeting with Putin, if the talks go well, he would like to organize a trilateral summit in Alaska with Zelensky’s participation and include the United States’ European allies in the discussions.
- Russia hopes to avoid additional sanctions and the threat of tariffs on oil exports, which would impact its main buyers — China and India.
- Before the summit, Putin hinted at the possibility of a new nuclear arms control agreement to replace the last existing accord, which expires in February 2026. Zelensky is demanding security guarantees for Ukraine and rejects the formal transfer of territory to Russia.
- Russia’s 2024 ceasefire conditions included, among other things, the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, as well as abandoning aspirations to join NATO. Ukraine views these conditions as a defeat and, in effect, a capitulation.
- On the other hand, the think tank Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian divisions have made advances, including in the Lyman direction, and while the Russian army is advancing on several sectors of the front, in others it is losing ground. It remains uncertain whether, under these circumstances, Ukraine would agree to the loss of a significant portion of its territory.
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Ukraine is not in a losing position in the war, but it faces very serious strategic challenges. Recapturing all territories occupied by Russia appears highly unlikely, and the Russians will not leave them voluntarily. The only possible exception might be an attractive trade deal with the United States that appeals to Putin, but even then, the Russian military would likely insist on maintaining full control over the resource-rich Donbas. Ukraine’s territorial integrity has become a bargaining chip. Source: ISW
