Morning Wrap (08.12.2025)

Asian-Pacific indices are posting a mixed cash session. The weekend passed relatively calmly, and moves in both forex and equities remain limited.

The U.S. dollar is down 0.10%, similar to the Japanese yen. On the other side are the Australian dollar and the euro. Changes, however, remain within a narrow +/-0.10% range. EURUSD is up 0.12%.

Markets are waiting for the Fed decision on Wednesday. A further 25 bp rate cut is currently priced with an 87% probability.

Gold is up 0.33% to 4,216 USD per ounce. WTI crude gains 0.18% to 60.20 USD per barrel.

Japan’s Q3 GDP was revised to –2.3% annualized (vs –2.0% expected), confirming a weak quarter despite slightly stronger private consumption.

China recorded a large November trade surplus of 111.7 billion USD, with exports up 5.9% and a jump in rare-earth metal exports. The data shows Beijing continues to dominate global export competitiveness despite tariffs.

The WSJ reports that IBM is close to acquiring Confluent for ~11 billion USD, implying roughly a 37% premium. CFLT shares jumped ~20% after hours, though they remain far below IPO levels.

Macron warned China about possible EU tariffs. The French president told Beijing that the EU may take steps similar to the U.S. in the coming months if China does not reduce its growing trade surplus — although unity within the EU remains uncertain.

Trump said his relationship with Prime Minister Carney is “very good,” and that trade issues “will be resolved,” while noting that Canada produces many goods the U.S. already manufactures.