Lower inflation expectation in the EU over the next 12 months - ECB survey!

9:18 AM 8 August 2023

Today, ECB consumer survey results for June were published at 9:00 BST time. Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased to 3.4% and expectations for inflation three years ahead also declined to 2.3%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged. Inflation perceptions and expectations were consistent across income groups, with younger respondents having lower perceptions and expectations than older ones.

  • Income and Consumption: expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months stayed at 1.2%. Expectations for nominal spending growth over the next 12 months dropped to 3.4%, the lowest since March 2022.

  • Labour Market and Economic Growth: expectations for economic growth in the next 12 months improved slightly to -0.6%. Expectations indicated a relatively stable labor market with the future unemployment rate slightly higher than the perceived current rate.

  • Housing and Credit Access: expectations for home price growth over the next 12 months stabilized at 2.1%. Expectations for mortgage interest rates decreased slightly to 5.0%.

EURUSD remained unchanged following the announcement. This survey does not have a significant impact on the EUR currency. However, the survey results may indicate consumer expectations for inflation, which is important to the ECB, D1 interval, source xStation 5

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