MACRO: US jobless claims stick above 400K

Initial jobless claims fell slightly to 411k from the upwardly revised 418k in the previous week, however today's reading again came in above analysts’ estimates of 380K. On the other hand, continuing claims, which run a week behind the headline number, fell to 3.39 million -the lowest since pre-COVID. Today’s report is the first to reflect the early June12 phase out emergency benefits in Alaska, Iowa, Missouri and Mississippi. These are the first states which decided to reduce federal support ahead of the official September expiration date. The number of initial claims is relatively flat compared to last week, despite the fact many employers say they are having trouble finding workers due to enhanced benefits, concerns about contracting COVID-19 and finding childcare.

Number of initial jobless claims still remains above 400k. Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile the number of job openings in the US rose to a new record high of 9.286 million in April 2021, while the number of Americans which receive some form of government jobless benefit was little changed and remains slightly below 15 million.

The total number of Americans on the dole has not changed much from last week. Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge

The latest macroeconomic data from the US point to a strong recovery, rising price pressure and labor shortages. Still, the Fed will most likely use today's report to uphold its current rhetoric, that an exceptionally loose monetary policy should be continued in order to support the labor market even if it differs from market reality.

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MACRO: US jobless claims stick above 400K

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