Morning briefing: Trump-Xi in the shadow of geopolitical tensions (21.09.2026)

Macroeconomics 📊

• Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve assessed that US inflation remains too high in all aspects of the economy, reinforcing the hawkish stance of American policymakers.
• At the same time, Bank of America warns of the risk of re-pricing yields at the short end of the curve, while fiscal problems in France pushed its bond risk premium to levels highest since 2012.
• Interest rate outlook in Australia: All four major banks in Australia now forecast an interest rate hike by the RBA to 4.60% as early as the upcoming meeting on September 29, which strongly supports the local currency and places the country at the center of macro market attention.
• China's Ministry of Finance sold 10-year bonds at a yield of 1.6626%.

Commodities 🛢️

• Commodity prices are declining amid reports from JPMorgan that Middle East flows remain surprisingly stable despite the Saudi pipeline outage, with hopes for diplomacy ahead of the upcoming US-China summit further easing global supply concerns.
• Gold corrects slightly downward under heavy pressure from the Fed's hawkish tone and growing market expectations, while grain prices are aided by positive signals emerging from preliminary trade talks in New York.
• As of 07:47, gold is near the level of 4,352 losing 0.58%, while silver is near 65.98 losing 0.34%, whereas WTI crude is near 94.34 losing 1.18%, and Brent crude is near 102.11 losing 1.08%, while copper is near 14,553 gaining 0.53%. Wheat is near 724.58 gaining 1.61%

Currencies 𒒰

• The USDJPY pair trades around 157, with the Japanese currency stabilizing as investors remain wary of potential currency intervention, even though markets in Japan are closed for a three-day national holiday.
• The Chinese yuan reached strong positions after the PBOC eased currency restrictions ahead of the upcoming political summit, while the global FX market awaits further geopolitical and trade developments between the world's largest economies.
• As of 07:47, EURUSD is near 1.1471 losing 0.06%, and down 0.06% for the week, while USDJPY is near 157.11 gaining 0.23%, and up 0.23% for the week, whereas the dollar index is near 100.06 gaining 0.12%, and up 0.12% for the week.

Stocks and Indices 📈

• US futures on major indices are up slightly after a mixed week, during which markets contended with pressure on bond yields and uncertainty around central bank monetary policy.
• Chinese biopharmaceutical companies surged on reports that the US may keep the door open for key licensing deals, with sentiment further supported by a rebound in the primary market with numerous IPOs in Hong Kong.
• As of 07:47, S&P 500 is near the level of 7,746 gaining 0.27%, while Nasdaq 100 is near 30,098 gaining 0.48%, whereas DJIA is near 52,269 gaining 0.26%

Cryptocurrencies 🪙

• Bitcoin posts solid gains, continuing a strong weekly uptrend and approaching key technical resistance levels supported by capital inflows.
• Accompanying the market leader, Ethereum and select altcoins record sizable double-digit weekly returns, while investors look to large bond issuances intended to fund tech infrastructure by global funds.
• As of 07:47, bitcoin is near the level of 81,572 gaining 0.93%, while ethereum is near 2,667 gaining 1.48%

Geopolitics 🗺️

• The Russian military struck a cargo ship in the port of Odesa and conducted attacks on logistical targets, to which Ukraine responded with a massive drone and missile strike on a key oil refinery in Moscow.
• Commercial vessel traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply over the weekend after Houthi rebels announced a missile attack on vulnerable targets in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, forcing the US into heightened diplomatic vigilance.
• Investors are cautiously optimistic regarding preliminary trade talks in New York conducted by administration officials ahead of the crucial meeting scheduled for September 24 between the presidents of the US and China.

Suggested to watch 🔍

• Zcash (ZCASH) — Exhibits an extremely high 5-year z-score (+5.98) alongside a today's gain of +2.86%, creating a risk of a sharp reversal or further speculative rally.
• WTI Crude (OIL.WTI) — Notes a large weekly drop (-10.53%) and -1.16% today. It is worth tracking market reaction to physical supply constraints (Strait of Hormuz, refinery attack near Moscow) colliding with JPMorgan's report of stable supply.
• Avalanche (AVALANCHE) — The asset gained over 50% on a weekly basis, while its 5-year z-score still stands at -0.86. This signals catching up to the broader market and high potential for continued volatility.
• Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) — Proximity to resistance at a +1.91 z-score and the fact that all 4 major Australian banks forecast an RBA rate hike at the end of September put AUD in the center of macro investors' focus.