Morning wrap (02.09.2026)

Oil rose to its highest level in nearly six weeks following renewed U.S. and Iranian strikes. Oil has since pared its gains to around 0.10–0.30%. The U.S. struck approximately 100 Iranian military and maritime targets, including two state-owned tankers, under a new “tanker-for-tanker” policy. Iran’s retaliation was largely intercepted. Washington claims the strikes weakened Iran’s capabilities and reduced near-term risks to shipping, but the conflict remains active.

Despite the latest exchange of fire, around 40 vessels reportedly passed through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces intercepted anti-ship missiles and drones, while Trump said Washington now has near-total control over the key shipping route.

Trump rejected reports that he was trying to force Tehran back to the negotiating table and said he preferred the current pressure being exerted on Iran. His comments suggest that Washington is currently prepared to maintain military pressure.

Governor Ueda said the Bank of Japan intends to continue raising interest rates as long as monetary conditions remain accommodative. Policymakers are increasingly focused on upside inflation risks stemming from energy prices, with underlying inflation already close to 2%.

USDJPY initially moved higher as the yen remained under pressure against a broadly stronger U.S. dollar. However, the pair has since pared its gains. Rising Japanese government bond yields have failed to provide lasting support for the currency. The market appears to be focusing more on higher energy import costs and broader fiscal concerns.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the OCR by 25 bp, in line with expectations, in response to CPI inflation of 4.1% and persistent risks related to energy prices. Governor Breman said another rate hike is likely, although its timing remains uncertain and policy is not following a predetermined path. The NZD weakened following the decision.

Excluding motor fuels, annual inflation fell to 2.9%, while most measures of underlying inflation remain within the target range. The RBNZ expects headline inflation to return to its 1–3% target range by mid-2027. This allows the central bank to tighten policy gradually rather than aggressively.

New Zealand’s GDP grew by 0.4% q/q and 2.1% y/y in Q2, beating expectations on both measures. Household consumption helped offset weaker business investment, while the AUD strengthened following the data release.