Morning wrap (07.02.2023)

8:00 AM 7 February 2023
  • US indices finished yesterday's trading lower but off the daily lows. S&P 500 dropped 0.61%, Dow Jones moved 0.10% lower and Nasdaq slumped 1.00%. Russell 2000 plunged 1.40%

  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mixed today. Nikkei traded flat, S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.5%, Nifty 50 moved 0.3% lower and Kospi added 0.5%. Indices from China traded mixed

  • DAXfutures point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session today

  • US President Biden repeated that risk of the recession in the United States remains very low

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25 basis point rate hike today, in-line with market expectations. Main rate was increased from 3.10 to 3.35%, and the RBA expects more rate hikes to come in the future. Rates in Australia are already the highest in 4 decades

  • RBA expects Australian inflation to slow this year amid slower increase in local demand as well as due to global causes

  • According to Morgan Stanley, latest stellar NFP report boosts chance for a 50 bp rate hike at next Fed meeting

  • Goldman Sachs estimates the probability of US recession within the next year at 25%. Bank noted continued strength of the labor market and signs of early improvement in business surveys

  • Japanese household spending dropped 1.3% YoY in December (exp. -0.3% YoY)

  • Turkey continues to be hit by earthquakes and aftershocks. Another 5.6 magnitude tremor was registered in central Turkey overnight. A 7.8 earthquake yesterday led to thousands of casualties in Turkey and Syria

  • Australian exports dropped 1.0% MoM in December while imports were 1% MoM higher. Trade balance came in at A$12.237 billion (exp. A$12.45 billion)

  • Cryptocurrencies are trading mostly higher today. Bitcoin gains 0.2%, Dogecoin and Ethereum trades 0.1% higher each while Litecoin adds 2.3%

  • Energy commodities trade higher with both Brent and WTI trading over 1% higher today

  • Precious metals gain as USD loses some ground. Gold adds 0.4% while silver jumps 0.6%

  • AUD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while USD and EUR lag the most

AUDUSD is rallying today, following a RBA hike and a pledge to continue hiking in the future. The pair bounced off the 50-session moving average today (green line) and made its way back above 50% retracement of the downward move started in April 2022. Source: xStation5

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