Morning wrap (10.03.2026)

Indices: U.S. index futures are gaining approximately 0.2% following Donald Trump's suggestions regarding the end of the war in Iran; European contracts remain under pressure (EU50: -0.4%).

Iran War: According to Donald Trump, the war in Iran could be concluded soon, and U.S. progress is already significantly further along than the 4-5 week plan prepared for the operation. The U.S. President also threatened Iran that if it blocks the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will increase the intensity of the attack with the intention of completely destroying the country.

Asian Session: Gains dominate the Asia-Pacific region on the wave of Donald Trump's words suggesting a near end to the war in Iran. Sentiment was also supported by excellent export data from China. The KOSPI index is gaining as much as 5.5%, which forced a temporary suspension of trading. China's HSCEI adds about 1.5%, while the Nikkei 225 gains 2.9%.

Growth in Japan: Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised from 0.1% to 1.3% Y/Y, surpassing all estimates thanks to corporate investment spending (+1.3% Q/Q vs. 0.2% Q/Q forecast) and domestic demand. For the first time in 13 months, an increase in real wages was recorded (+1.4%), improving household purchasing power. The USDJPY rate extends its decline by 0.15% as the data increases expectations for an interest rate hike in Japan.

China's International Trade: China's trade surplus for the January-February 2026 period reached a record $213.62 billion (forecast: $177.4 billion). Exports rose 21.8% Y/Y, significantly exceeding forecasts, despite a 16.9% decline in trade with the U.S.. Growth was driven by trade with the EU (+19.9%) and ASEAN (+20.3%). Simultaneously, inflation rebounded to 1.3%. Strong data suggest that Beijing may refrain from additional economic stimulus in the near term.

Monetary Policy in Australia: Andrew Hauser from the RBA announced a "tough debate" on monetary policy at the central bank's next meeting, emphasizing differing opinions within the RBA and the high and uncertain risk of an energy price shock caused by the war in Iran. Alongside Hauser's statements, consumer sentiment data has also improved.

Forex: After yesterday's correction and an attempted rebound at the start of the Asian session, the dollar index (USDIDX) is trading unchanged in the face of the uncertain timeframe of the war in Iran, consolidating after recent gains. Improvement in risk appetite is signaled by gains in AUDUSD (+0.34%), though these partially result from still hawkish outlooks for RBA policy. EURUSD is trading unchanged at 1.163.

Commodities: Brent and WTI crude are bouncing by 4% and 1.65% respectively after yesterday's record volatility and a move toward $120 per barrel (current: Brent at $93.60). During the pause in the dollar's gains, precious metals are also gaining; gold rises 0.45% to $5,176 per ounce, and silver grows 1.7% to $89.22 per ounce.

Crypto Optimism: Bitcoin gains another 1.9%, again approaching the psychological level of $70,000; Ethereum adds 2% to $2,045.