Morning wrap (11.12.2025)

Asian-Pacific equity markets are selling off as steep losses in Oracle (-11%) dragged the technology sector lower and revived concerns about the profitability of AI-capex investments.

U.S. index futures are also sharply lower. US100 is trading 1.25% down, US500 is losing 0.90%, and US2000 is down 0.85%.

The U.S. dollar is rebounding and is one of the strongest G10 currencies in the first part of the day. The USDIDX index is up 0.14%. The Swiss franc is also rising strongly. On the other side is the Australian dollar, which is losing between 0.3% and 0.6% after the labor-market report.

Employment in Australia unexpectedly fell by 21,300, mainly due to 56.5K fewer full-time jobs, while unemployment held at 4.3% only because of a drop in participation.

Oracle is down more than 11% after weaker-than-expected earnings and concerns over AI-capex obligations estimated at 300 billion USD. Despite a sharp increase in EPS (2.26 USD vs 1.64 USD) — inflated by a one-off 2.7 billion USD gain — investors focused on deteriorating license revenue (-21%) and rising risks tied to massive AI investments.

Mexico has approved broad tariffs on imports from China, India, Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia, covering cars (50%), textiles/apparel (35%), steel/aluminum (35%), and electronics (5–35%). The move is seen as aligning with the U.S. political-trade strategy and deepening North American supply-chain integration at the expense of China.

Japan’s large-manufacturer sentiment index rose from 3.8 to 4.7, supported by stronger exports and improved profitability thanks to the weaker yen. This is the strongest reading since late 2024, partly offsetting weak household consumption.

Hong Kong’s central bank (HKMA) cut its base rate by 25 bp to 4.0%. Hong Kong followed the Fed decision, bringing funding costs to their lowest level since October 2022.

RBC expects central-bank buying, geopolitical demand, and structural investor inflows to further support a multi-year gold bull market, despite the large price rally in 2025. Forecasts assume gold averaging 4,600 USD in 2026 and 5,100 USD in 2027.

Musk confirmed reports that SpaceX may go public in June–July 2026 with a valuation of 1–1.5 trillion USD — or even higher as Starlink scales. Ark Invest forecasts a 2.5 trillion USD market cap by 2030. Musk is also considering mechanisms that would allow Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX equity.