Morning wrap (15.04.2026)

Markets started the session on a positive note following signals of progress in US–Iran negotiations.
Vice President JD Vance pointed to the possibility of a “grand bargain,” involving Iran’s economic reintegration in exchange for nuclear concessions. The ceasefire has been holding for about a week.
Trump stated that he does not expect the ceasefire to be extended, suggesting confidence in a quick agreement. However, his messaging remains mixed — on one hand he describes the conflict as “very close to over,” while on the other he emphasizes that operations are not yet complete. He suggested that the coming days will be decisive.
Talks are ongoing through diplomatic channels, including with the involvement of Pakistan. Another round of negotiations with high-level US officials is expected. The timeline is tight, and the ceasefire is acting as a deadline. The coming days will be crucial for the outcome of the talks.
Oil prices continued to decline, with OIL.WTI trading around 91.50 USD per barrel and Brent around 95.60 USD per barrel. Hopes for de-escalation have reduced the geopolitical risk premium. Although the market is pricing in an optimistic outcome of the negotiations, significant risks remain.
The US is offering economic normalization and global integration in exchange for Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions. This signals a shift toward a broader strategic framework rather than just a ceasefire agreement.
Risk-on sentiment improved, supporting equity markets. US indices closed yesterday slightly below their all-time highs, highlighting optimism.
The Reuters Tankan survey showed the largest drop in sentiment in Japan’s manufacturing sector in three years. Rising energy costs and supply disruptions are negatively affecting the sector. Domestic sectors remain more resilient, but external pressures are increasing.
Janet Yellen suggested that the Fed may deliver one more rate cut this year despite rising inflation risks. The policy outlook remains highly uncertain.
Satellite images show that Iran is repairing damage to underground missile bases during the ceasefire. As much as half of the missile infrastructure remains intact. This suggests preparations for potential further escalation.
The US is offering economic normalization and global integration in exchange for Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions. This signals a shift toward a broader strategic framework rather than just a ceasefire agreement.

15 April 2026, 6:58 AM

Economic calendar: earnings and central bank speakers 🎙️

14 April 2026, 1:30 PM

BREAKING: US PPI comes in weaker than expected. EURUSD gains ground

14 April 2026, 12:07 PM

🚩 US NFIB report much weaker than expected

14 April 2026, 7:43 AM

Economic calendar: US PPI report and central bankers speeches in focus

Economic reports

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
__cfruid
_cfuvid

Cookie name	Description
_gid	Expiration date 1 day
_gat_UA-98728395-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gat_UA-121192761-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
af_id	Expiration date 394 days
afUserId	Expiration date 730 days
AF_SYNC	Expiration date 6 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days

Cookie name	Description
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
fr	Expiration date 89 days
_ttp	Expiration date 89 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 89 days
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	Expiration date 179 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA	Expiration date 179 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days

Cookie name	Description
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days