Morning wrap (17.02.2026)

US index futures are ending the long weekend with renewed declines amid ongoing concerns about potential changes artificial intelligence could bring to individual sectors. US100, US500 and US2000 are down about 0.45%, while US30 is slightly more resilient (-0.35%).

Brent and WTI crude are correcting about 0.5% ahead of upcoming talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva. Donald Trump commented that the Iranians are “bad negotiators” but want a deal. The US president is expected to be “indirectly involved” in the negotiations.

The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes indicated inflation is stronger and broader than initially assumed, with strong demand and a tight labour market increasing price pressures. Relatively high rates are no longer restrictive, and further hikes may be needed to bring inflation back to target. The RBA recently raised rates from 3.6% to 3.85%.

Volatility in Asia-Pacific remains limited due to the lack of trading in China (Lunar New Year). Japan’s market continues to fall after disappointing GDP data (JP225: -0.5%), while Australia’s AU200.cash gains about 0.1% following strong results from commodities giant BHP. South Korea’s market is down 0.3%, while India’s is up 0.2%.

In FX, the Japanese yen leads gains against G10 currencies after a successful Japanese bond auction despite weak GDP. Otherwise, volatility on majors remains muted within roughly ±0.1% ranges. EURUSD is flat near 1.184.

Gold is under clear selling pressure and briefly dropped below $4,900 (currently -1.6% at $4,910), with silver also down 2.3% to $74.